During the 2025/26 season, the Chicago Bulls were content to finally tear their core down to the studs and rebuild, and that’s exactly what they’ve done. Nikola Vučević, the last remaining member of Chicago’s most recent core, was traded in February, and now Caleb Wilson and Matas Buzelis form the Bulls’ identity.
Chicago fans surely have few expectations of winning tonight’s 8 p.m. ET Emirates NBA Cup East Group C contest against the Atlanta Hawks, much less the championship in June. The Bulls’ future took another hit on Wednesday night, when Wilson suffered a fractured hand that will keep him out for at least a month.
In addition to Wilson, Chicago will be without Tobe Awaka (back), with Norman Powell (back) and Dailyn Swain (back) questionable. Atlanta has an even longer injury list: Keshon Gilbert (knee), Mouhamed Gueye (foot), Asa Newell (toe), and Henri Veesaar (ACL) are out, Jalen Wilson (G-League) is doubtful, and RayJ Dennis (G-League) and Kingston Flemings (back) are both questionable. None of the Hawks’ potential absences have played a major role this season, with the exception of Flemings, and both Powell and Wilson are starters for the Bulls.
Atlanta is a 7.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-290 Moneyline), with the point total set to 246.5. Chicago is +236 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down this NBA Cup group game and offer a prediction.
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls preview, prediction
The Hawks kept most of their core intact during the offseason, although they did bring in Aaron Wiggins and Luguentz Dort to serve as valuable bench pieces. Jalen Johnson (19.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game) has still made a strong impact despite his jumper not falling, Nickeil Alexander-Walker (21.9 points per game) could be in line for his first All-Star appearance, and Dyson Daniels leads the league in steals per game. All in all, Atlanta is 7-5, though it’s been the beneficiary of a fairly friendly schedule. The Hawks have had both the 13th-best offense and 13th-best defense so far, and given that they’ve been better on both sides of the ball with the rookie Flemings off the court, they would arguably be better off without him playing tonight.
The Bulls have been almost equally awful on both sides of the ball with and without both Wilson and Powell, and they haven’t won since an October 23 clash against the similarly fruitless Milwaukee Bucks. Wilson (18.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game) has offered some flashes as a rookie, but Buzelis hasn’t taken the third-season leap that many had hoped for, and Powell (a first-time All-Star in 2025/26 at age 32) has been inefficient in the games he has played. Chicago has had the sixth-worst offense in basketball and by far the worst defense.
Hawks at Bulls pick, best bet
I am expecting a fast-paced game filled with lots of drives, given that these two teams rank first and second in pace and second (Bulls) and seventh (Atlanta) in restricted-area attempts per game, although Chicago’s slashing might be hurt slightly by Wilson’s absence. Both teams have also finished pretty well, although the Hawks could be more due for improvement, given Alexander-Walker has finished at a mark nearly eight percentage points worse than he did in 2025/26. However, both teams have given it up on the other end, as the Bulls have allowed the most layups per game and Atlanta the second-most. Chicago has held teams to a lower percentage, which could be sustainable given that Jalen Smith ranked in the 99th percentile in rim points saved per 100 possessions last season, but it’s allowed so many attempts that not even the Hawks have given up more makes.
I expect Atlanta to ever-so-slightly win the rebounding battle. Neither of these teams has been very competitive on the glass so far, and Wilson has actually had a negative on-off impact in that respect, but I just trust the Hawks’ lengthier wings more in the long run. Atlanta has also hustled far more in transition than the Bulls have, especially getting back on defense, and the hosts could be in trouble without Wilson, who ranks 12th league-wide in fast-break points per game. At least the Hawks’ struggles to get to the charity stripe could be a respite for Chicago, which has been one of the league’s most foul-prone teams this season, and especially if Powell plays, the Bulls’ ability to draw contact themselves could challenge Atlanta’s depth. Daniels has been disciplined, but if he ends up in foul trouble as Powell’s likely primary defender, it could spell trouble, since the Hawks have been 18.2 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the pine.
Given their pace, both of these teams rank in the top 10 in three-point attempts per game, but Atlanta has hit its shots at roughly a league-average clip and Chicago has been the worst shooting team in the league. That’s a combination of shot quality and luck; the Hawks have produced 3.4 more wide-open threes per game than the Bulls have, but for as little raw shooting talent as Chicago has, its 27.9% mark on such looks is virtually guaranteed to rise. Atlanta has benefited from more opponent shooting luck than the Bulls have as well, but it’s done an excellent job contesting opponents’ jumpers, as might generally be expected from its bevy of lengthy wings.
The Hawks have only picked up two wins this season by eight or more points, but they came against the Washington Wizards and the Charlotte Hornets, two teams with better net ratings than Chicago. To their credit, the Bulls haven’t yet lost a home game by more than seven points despite playing both of last season’s Finalists and the Philadelphia 76ers, but their 62.0% true shooting percentage at home is probably unsustainable. Atlanta should be able to produce plenty of quality looks at both the rim and from beyond the arc, putting pressure on Chicago’s porous defense.
