The college football season rolls along this week with a number of notable matchups across the Power 4 and Group of 6 ranks. The ACC plays host to one of the biggest games on the slate, as we’ll see the Wake Forest Demon Deacons take on the SMU Mustangs in a matchup that essentially functions as an elimination game in ACC title race — and the College Football Playoff by extension.
Wake Forest enters this game off a stress-free win over Merrimack last week, while SMU exceeded market expectations in a thoroughly dominant victory over Virginia Tech. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s college football game between Wake Forest and SMU.
SMU is a 1.5-point favorite for this matchup with the total listed at 60.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig into the odds and my best bet on Saturday’s matchup, and don’t miss our complete coverage of all of the Week 11 college football action at DraftKings Network.
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Wake Forest vs. SMU Prediction
Wake Forest has been one of the biggest surprises in college football this season, having already exceeded its projected regular season win total with ease heading into the final three weeks of the campaign. Jake Dickert has proven himself to be one of the best young coaches at the Power 4 level and Gio Lopez has experienced something of a career revival in Winston-Salem, putting up 24 total touchdowns to just one interception through eight games played. Lopez did suffer a lower-body injury in Week 9 against Virginia, but he is expected to return for Saturday’s matchup.
The Wake Forest defense has arguably been even more of a surprise than what we’ve seen from the offense this season. In fact, the Demon Deacons are inside the top 15 in yards per play allowed and inside the top 40 in adjusted EPA per play. However, there is something to be said for the fact that Wake Forest has played a pretty easy schedule of opponents to this point and when they have stepped up in class, they’ve struggled to hold up.
SMU has gone through its fair share of struggles this season, but the Mustangs are still among the better offenses in the nation and when Kevin Jennings has been able to limit the mistakes, they can easily put up points in bunches against any opponent. That was certainly the case in a 51-point showing against Virginia Tech a week ago, and the Mustangs have also hung 50+ in two other home games this season. While I don’t anticipate a similar showing on Saturday, there still should be plenty of avenues for SMU to score.
The Wake Forest defense is excellent against the rush, but the Mustangs are at their best through the air, sitting inside the top 10 in both EPA per dropback and passing success rate. Jennings is protected by an experienced offensive line, meaning that he’ll likely have time to sit back and pick apart a Demon Deacons defense that is outside the top 100 in passing success rate allowed. I do expect Wake Forest to experience success on offense, but SMU’s strong pass rush and ability to generate pressure on Lopez could be the difference in this game.
Wake Forest vs SMU Best Bet
It’s hard to dispute what Wake Forest has put on tape this season, but the market is clearly expecting a bit of regression for the Demon Deacons against one of the only top 40 caliber opponents on their schedule. On the other side, SMU’s elite passing offense should generate consistent success in a favorable matchup at home. I’ll side with Jennings to make enough plays to pull this one out late.