The No. 8 Utah State Aggies will take on the No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs in the First Round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Below we’ll preview both teams, including analysis and key stats while also providing our prediction.
Utah State
NET: 38
KenPom Overall: 48
KenPom O: 38
KenPom D: 69
Record: 27-6
Strength of Schedule: 87
Conference: Mountain West
Conference Record: 14-4
Quad 1 Record: 4-5
Utah State is back in the Big Dance and enters as a battle tested unit after winning the regular season championship in a tough Mountain West Conference. The Aggies were well balanced on both sides of the floor and it helps when you have an imposing figure like MWC Player of the Year Great Osobor. One area they excelled at was stopping the three as they held opponents to just 29% shooting from downtown.
TCU
NET: 42
KenPom Overall: 32
KenPom O: 44
KenPom D: 30
Record: 21-12
Strength of Schedule: 46
Conference: Big 12
Conference Record: 9-9
Quad 1 Record: 5-11
The TCU Horned Frogs reached the NCAA Tournament after a solid year in a very challenging Big XII. The extreme parity in the Big XII this season saw TCU grab wins over Houston and Baylor while suffering losses to UCF and Cincinnati. Their offense, led by forward Emmanuel Miller, put up over 80 points per night throughout the regular season.
Utah State/TCU Pick
I think Utah State is the more exciting team, but TCU is the better team. The Aggies have 6 ft. 8 forward Great Osobor who averages 18 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. I do not envy anyone to defend him, but TCU’s Emanuel Miller should be up to the task. He is 6 ft. 7 and averaged 15.9 points and 5.9 rebounds this season. This should be a slugfest down low, which means the game could come down to foul trouble and/or the ability to shoot from range. Utah State is the third-best team at limiting three-point shots, but they can’t make them, connecting on just 32.1% of their attempts. The Horned Frogs should be able to pull off the “upset” and advance.
Pick: TCU
2024 March Madness: No. 9 TCU vs. No. 8 Utah State odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook TBA
Spread: TCU -3.5, Utah State +3.5
Over/Under: 146.5
Moneyline: TCU -175, Utah State +145