A crucial Big Ten matchup is on tap for Saturday in Bloomington. Defending champion #9 Indiana (8-1, 5-1) doesn’t have the most impressive resume up to this point. This weekend presents an opportunity for the Hoosiers to pick up a ranked victory. It won’t come easy against #18 USC (7-2, 4-2), a group that now has a very real path at making the postseason. If the Trojans are going to reach the CFP, earning a road upset today is imperative.
The Hoosiers are listed as 8.5-point favorites over the Trojans, with the total set at O/U 50.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s USC vs. Indiana matchup.
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USC vs. Indiana prediction, preview
The last time we saw the Trojans in action, they pulled off a commanding 30-18 victory over #20 Ohio State. Fresh off of its bye week, Southern California should come into this one well-rested. As is the case with any Lincoln Riley-led squad, it’s all about the offense. This scoring attack is led by Jayden Maiava, one of the nation’s premier passers. Through nine games, the senior has thrown for a Big Ten-best 2,524 yards and 20 touchdowns. Just as important, he’s only handed out five interceptions. Within the conference, USC ranks fourth in yards per game (423.8) and points per game (32.4).
If there’s any weakness for this offense, it’s on the ground. USC is gaining 129.3 rushing yards per game, sixth-fewest in the conference. It’s unlikely those numbers improve over the weekend. Indiana is holding opponents to just 2.29 yards per rush attempt, second-best in all of college football. In addition, teams are scoring a measly 12.4 points per game when facing the Hoosiers. Only one team, Northwestern, has scored more than 17 points against IU.
The issue for Curt Cignetti’s squad has come on the other side of the ball. Indiana has struggled to move the ball consistently under new quarterback Josh Hoover. The TCU transfer has thrown for 1,860 yards, 19 touchdowns and two interceptions during his nine games with the school. Things aren’t getting any better, either. Hoover has combined for 200 passing yards over his last two outings. Fortunately for the defending champs, things have been far more successful when running the ball. However, Turbo Richard (shoulder) has been ruled out this week. In his absence, fellow tailback Lee Beebe should take on a much larger role.
Defensively, Southern Cal leaves much to be desired. The school has coughed up 346.0 yards and 24.2 points per game, eighth and fourth-worst in the conference respectively. Defending through the air has proven to be difficult for this secondary. Opposing passers are averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt, third-worst in the conference. Granted, this group has held up a bit better in recent weeks. Still, it’s not as if Ohio State and Wisconsin’s current passing offenses are elite.
USC vs. Indiana Pick, Best Bet
If Richard were active, I’d have a bit more faith in this Hoosiers offense. However, Cignetti’s crew hasn’t done its job when it comes to putting up points. USC has its faults defensively, but Hoover hasn’t shown much ability to stretch the field either. On the other side, Maiava is capable of keeping things close at the very least. The Trojans should manage to stick around in an entertaining Big Ten grudge match.
Best Bet: USC +8.5 (-110)
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