The Montreal Canadiens visit the Boston Bruins on Thursday night, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET at TD Garden. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Boston is a -125 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Bruins vs. Canadiens prediction and best bet.
Bruins vs. Canadiens Odds
| Market | Montreal Canadiens | Boston Bruins |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +105 | -125 |
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-238) | -1.5 (+195) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (+110) | Under 6.5 (-130) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Bruins vs. Canadiens Betting Preview
Boston Bruins Outlook
Boston keeps winning games despite not really controlling them, and the goaltending is the primary reason why. The Bruins have allowed just 1.50 goals per 60 at 5v5, tied for the fewest in the NHL, even though their 2.45 5v5 xGoals against per 60 rank only 15th. They also sit 24th in Corsi% (47.9%), so they spend plenty of time without the puck, yet they still sport an 8-1-0 record at TD Garden.
Jeremy Swayman is expected to draw the start, and he’s been elite with a 9-3-1 record, .920 SV% and 2.21 GAA. His +10.2 GSAx ranks third among 75 goaltenders, and his +1.40% SV% above expected sits ninth. David Pastrnak (8G, 16A) leads the team with 24 points, and Elias Lindholm (7G, 8A) sits second with 15. As a team, Boston is finishing well above its chances, too, scoring 3.67 goals per 60 (sixth) on just 3.12 xGoals per 60 (T-18th). The power play hasn’t helped them much, ranking 24th (18.3%), and James Hagens (back) is expected to miss multiple weeks, which takes six goals out of the lineup.
Montreal Canadiens Outlook
Jacob Fowler continues to give Montreal a chance every night, and the Canadiens have sorta needed him to. They allow 3.38 xGoals against per 60, tied for 23rd in the NHL, but their 3.00 goals against per 60 rank 14th. Over their past 10 games, the Canadiens have allowed 2.66 5v5 xGoals against per 60 (T-25th) while giving up just 1.52 actual goals per 60 at 5v5, the fourth-fewest, so the gap has only gotten larger.
Fowler is confirmed to start, and he’s 8-1-2 with a .925 SV%, 2.14 GAA and two shutouts. His +12.3 GSAx and +1.86% SV% above expected rank second and third, respectively. Cole Caufield (11G, 6A) leads the club in goals, Lane Hutson (3G, 15A) leads the team with 18 points from the blue line, and Nick Suzuki (7G, 9A) has looked great since returning from a hand injury that cost him six games, scoring three points in his first game back on Nov. 5. The power play is where Montreal continues to fall short, ranking 30th at 14.8%. At least the Canadiens are a strong 6-1-1 on the road, though.
Bruins vs. Canadiens Prediction and Best Bet
Both teams have leaned on two of the three best goaltenders in the NHL by GSAx, and neither power play presents much of a threat. Six of Boston’s nine home games have stayed under this number, as have five of Montreal’s eight road games. The under isn’t cheap at -130, and the public money agrees with me, as 73% of the total handle is on it. Still, I’ll gladly lay the price when Swayman and Fowler are both between the pipes.
Best Bet: Under 6.5 Goals (-130)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
