This feels like a must-win game for the Commanders, who would fall four games behind the Giants in the NFC East with a loss on Thursday Night Football. It all really just amplifies that OT blunder in Week 5, doesn’t it?
Still, while some are lamenting scores that didn’t happen in extra time, we’re thinking about the next score. The first score.
Who will find the end zone first in tonight’s tilt between Washington and New York? Let’s break down the odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook and make a couple of picks.
Commanders vs. Giants First Touchdown Scorer Odds
Commanders vs. Giants First Touchdown Scorer Picks
Malik Nabers First TD Scorer (+950)
We still don’t really have all that large a sample for how the Giants’ offense functions with J.J. McCarthy (+1900) under center, and it doesn’t help that the former first-round pick missed 16 snaps in Week 9’s victory over the Eagles due to injury. With that said, in the two starts that McCarthy has made this season, it’s pretty obvious who New York’s No. 1 receiver is. Since the beginning of Week 7, Malik Nabers’ 17 targets and 12 receptions are almost double that of any other Giants pass catcher. However, through some odd sequencing and the aforementioned ailment, McCarthy’s only thrown one red zone pass in this two-game span. That’s not exactly conducive to racking up passing touchdowns. I’d expect this trend to normalize on Thursday night, especially in a matchup with the Commanders. Washington is one of five teams allowing an average of over two opponent passing scores per contest.
Jayden Daniels First TD Scorer (+1300)
Daniels’ most productive rushing game of the season was famously in Week 5 against the Giants, as the QB ripped-off a 38-yard touchdown run and another from 26 yards out. He hasn’t been scrambling quite as often in subsequent weeks, but I think it’s worth noting that Daniels’ success running against New York is not a phenomenon that was limited to only him. Tyler Shough managed to find the end zone against the Giants in Week 6, while Joe Milton just ran for 64 yards in Week 9. All told, New York is surrendering the second-most quarterback rushing yards per game (29.5), and that makes some sense, given that the Giants also sit seventh in the NFL in man-to-man coverage rate (24.8%). At the end of the day, Daniels is the best offensive weapon on this injury-plagued Commanders roster. There’s value in backing him in this market.
