We’ve got a crucial day of action for Group 4 in the Nations League on Saturday. It was a tough group, top to bottom, and it has delivered so far. Norway and Wales have three points apiece and are on the outside looking in at the playoffs. The winner of this match has a clear path back to the playoffs, making this an awfully compelling contest.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Norway are -475 favorites, with the draw priced at +550. Wales is set at +900 to spring the upset.
Norway vs. Wales Pick, Best Bet
Don’t let the odds fool you here. In the reverse fixture, the Welsh pulled off a stunning 2-1 victory over Norway in a chaotic match from start to finish. Norway took the lead with an 11th-minute Oscar Bobb goal, but the momentum shifted when Julian Ryerson was forced off with an injury. Wales equalized before halftime, and all hell broke loose out of the break. Norwegian center-back Torbjørn Heggem was sent off a minute after halftime, and Neco Williams gave Wales the lead soon after. They didn’t look back from there, holding Norway’s talented attack off the board in the second half to secure all three points.
To run it back, they need another excellent defensive effort. That has to start with the veterans. Ben Davies has been a stout presence at center in the Welsh defense, and they’re getting important contributions from Jay Dasilva, Connor Roberts, and Chris Mepham. Swansea City’s Ben Cabango has been excellent as well. If they can hold it down once again and grind the pace to a halt, it gives them a chance to steal points from this one.
Norway’s success has to start with the defense. They’ve conceded exactly one goal in all four group-stage matches, and it’s hard to win many matches when you’re that weak at the back. With their wide backs playing such an important attacking role, the center backs are under heavy pressure to keep things together. So far, they are cracking under that pressure. Kristoffer Ajer, the talented Brentford center back, has to set the tone there. Manager Ståle Solbakken seems split between Heggem and Leo Østigård at the second center-back spot, and that starting decision will significantly influence this match.
If they can keep it tight defensively, this attack has more than enough quality to deliver the win. They’ve scored in all four matches, led by Erling Haaland’s power. With support from Antonio Nusa, Oscar Bobb, and Martin Ødegaard, Haaland leads an awfully impressive attack into this match. Given how the defense is performing, the pressure is on for them to produce.
I’m cautiously optimistic that Wales can do this again. Confidence can be everything, and they know they can knock off this Norwegian team. I’ll back the Welsh to pull off another upset and put themselves in the mix for a knockout-round spot.
