In February, Kenneth Walker III became the first running back to win Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in 1998, making it all the more stunning when the Seattle Seahawks opted not to bring him back during free agency over the summer. So far this season, he has proven a star with the Kansas City Chiefs, and it’s conceivable that he could become the first player to win the award in back-to-back seasons with two different teams.
So far, Walker has amassed the second-most DraftKings DFS points of any running back, and his fantasy stock is arguably at an all-time high.
Conventional wisdom would back keeping Walker through the final few weeks of the season and the fantasy football playoffs, but he’s still been traded in 91 Yahoo Sports fantasy leagues today, suggesting that some managers are hoping to cash in on his value. Below, I’ll assess whether or not that’s a good idea.
Results and Usage
Through the first five weeks of the season, Walker looked like an even better player than the one who carried the Seahawks through the playoffs, turning 106 carries into a league-leading 665 yards and catching an additional 14 passes for 95 yards. However, he followed that up with two rough road games in a row, turning 18 touches into just 57 yards against Seattle (9.7 DK FPTS) and then recording 25 touches for 84 yards the following weekend against the Denver Broncos (12.4 FPTS). Walker bounced back in a major way in Week 9, taking 18 carries for 102 yards and a score and adding four catches, 41 yards, and two scores against the New York Jets (39.3 FPTS).
Walker continues to dominate pretty much every statistical category. He’s posted the league’s highest Pro Football Focus offensive grades for the second consecutive season, and he trails only the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Jaylen Warren in yards over expectation per attempt. Walker also ranks eighth in rushing success rate, second in yards per attempt, second in missed tackles forced, second in runs of 10 yards or more, and first among high-usage runners in elusiveness. Walker’s 1,044 yards from scrimmage account for nearly one-third of the Chiefs’ total. It’s hardly an exaggeration to say that Kansas City’s offense would not function without him.
Future Outlook
Despite the rough outings against the Seahawks and the Broncos — who have had among the best run defenses in the league in the last several seasons — there’s no reason to panic about Walker, and he assuaged any concerns with his efficient performance against the Jets. He’s far from the only fantasy superstar to have the occasional rough outing, as even Jahmyr Gibbs had just 15 carries for 46 yards and four catches for 31 yards in Week 4 against the Carolina Panthers, though he salvaged it with a touchdown (17.7 FPTS). Saquon Barkley, whose 2024 Offensive Player of the Year-winning season was one of the best by a running back in NFL history, had just 18 carries for 47 yards and two catches for seven yards (7.4 FPTS) in Week 5 against the Cleveland Browns.
Andy Reid didn’t lose faith in him after his brief struggles, as his game against Denver actually represented his second-highest snap share of the season. Inside the red zone, Walker continues to be one of the game’s most reliable options; he’s taken 75.0% of the Chiefs’ carries inside the red zone, the third-highest share of any running back in the league, and he also leads Kansas City in red zone target share. In fact, no running back league-wide has attracted a higher proportion of his team’s targets inside the opposing 20.
I don’t think the Chiefs’ trade for Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs changes all that much. Downs isn’t a high-volume receiver, catching more than four passes in a game just twice this season, and even in the four weeks in which Kansas City had both Rashee Rice and a healthy Tyquan Thornton, Walker averaged 21.8 carries, 134.3 rushing yards, and 21.0 receiving yards (29.8 FPTS) per game, so if anything, Downs’ presence could take defensive attention away from him. Mahomes has historically gotten the most out of his running backs in the passing game; in 2022, arguably his best season, little-known veteran Jerick McKinnon ranked fourth among all running backs in receiving yards and tops in touchdowns. The fact that he ranks dead last league-wide in intended air yards per passing attempt should only help Walker.
Walker will undoubtedly remain the focal point of the Chiefs offense on Sunday, when Kansas City travels to take on the Atlanta Falcons. This season, the Falcons have given up the third-most FPTS per game to opposing running backs, including the sixth-most rushing yards and seventh-most rushing touchdowns. Atlanta has also forced pressure at a slightly above-average rate, which could incentivize Mahomes to dump it off even more than he already has. Walker also has a string of easy matchups after the Falcons; his average remaining opponent has been merely the 18th-best against opposing running backs. He’ll face the 21st-ranked Los Angeles Chargers during Week 17, a common week for fantasy championships.
