The Tampa Bay Lightning visit the Buffalo Sabres on Wednesday night, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET at KeyBank Center. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Tampa Bay is a -130 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Sabres vs. Lightning prediction and best bet.
Sabres vs. Lightning Odds
| Market | Tampa Bay Lightning | Buffalo Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -130 | +110 |
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+190) | +1.5 (-230) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-115) | Under 6.5 (-105) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Sabres vs. Lightning Betting Preview
Buffalo Sabres Outlook
Buffalo is coming off a 4-1 home loss to Vegas on Sunday, and the Sabres sport just a 4-5-0 record at KeyBank Center this season. Over their past 10 outings, they’ve controlled only 48.3% of the xGoals (22nd), and the goaltending has done a lot of the heavy lifting, combining for +4.2 GSAx in that span. That does not exactly look like a sustainable recipe against one of the NHL’s best offenses.
Tage Thompson (10G, 9A) leads the team with 19 points, and his 12.74 shots on goal per 60 lead the Sabres by a wide margin. Jack Quinn (9G, 7A) has been the most efficient finisher, however, scoring 2.6 goals above expected, while Zach Benson (2G, 13A) leads the club in assists. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen likely draws the start between the pipes, and he ranks 45th in GSAx (-1.0) and 39th in SV% above expected (-0.18%) among 75 goaltenders. Buffalo’s power play has looked very bad, too, ranking 30th at 14.3%.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
The Lightning sport a perfect 8-0-0 home record, but road games haven’t gone the same way with a 3-4-2 record, and their road games have resulted in high-scoring affairs. Tampa Bay’s 55.4% xGoals share ranks tied for fifth, its 3.55 xGoals per 60 rank third, and over the past 10 games, it has scored 4.13 goals per 60 (third) while generating the most high-danger shots in the NHL.
Nikita Kucherov (5G, 17A) leads the team with 22 points, Jake Guentzel (10G, 8A) paces the club in goals, and Brandon Hagel (9G, 9A) has been unlucky, with his nine goals coming on a team-high 10.5 xGoals. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, Brayden Point (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday after exiting Sunday’s game early. The goaltending has been a weak spot all season, as the Lightning have allowed 3.02 goals per 60 (15th) despite ranking ninth in xGoals against per 60 (2.85). Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start with an .883 SV% and 2.85 GAA, and his -0.4 GSAx and -0.06% SV% above expected rank 38th and 36th, respectively.
Sabres vs. Lightning Prediction and Best Bet
These teams have combined for seven or more goals in four of their past five meetings, including an electric 8-7 Sabres win on March 8, although the most recent one was a 4-2 Buffalo win on April 6. Only three of Buffalo’s nine home games have gone over 6.5 goals, but seven of Tampa Bay’s nine road games have, and I trust the Lightning’s offense more than either goaltender in this one. Buffalo can’t keep relying on its goaltending to cover for the chances it gives up, so give me the over.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 Goals (-115)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
