The Sunday Slip: NFL best bets, picks, predictions for 11/09/26

Below is my full betting slip for today’s loaded Week 9 NFL slate, with some notes on what I’d risk, some quick analyses—I have full previews of all of most of these already published, if you’re interested in more in-depth analysis. This is both a comprehensive round-up and an at-a-glance preview. Why just be one thing when you can be both?

Follow my handle @dansby_edits for all preseason and fantasy draft kit content—as well as plenty of NFL betting goodies—all season long.

Dan Johnson’s full Week 9 NFL betslip

1:00 p.m. ET

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Best bet: Broncos -2.5 (-120) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Jonah Coleman anytime touchdown (-105) | Stake: 1u

Denver called on rookie running back Jonah Coleman for all five backfield touches inside the 10 against Kansas City. With fellow back RJ Harvey on injured reserve and veteran J.K. Dobbins logging one second-half snap, Coleman has seized the work closest to the goal line. Carolina has yielded touchdowns on 61.5% of red-zone visits and now plays without edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Bobby Okereke. Broncos quarterback Bo Nix should be able to drive Denver back into scoring position against that depleted front.

Carolina running back Chuba Hubbard can catch his way downfield against Denver, whose underneath coverage and injured secondary should help him follow his seven-catch game against Green Bay. The Panthers still have to hold up in protection, though. Their interior line is unsettled, and quarterback Bryce Young labored through 41 attempts for a meager 209 yards last week. Denver receiver Jaylen Waddle practiced fully all week and carries no game designation after his chest injury. With Nix throwing to Waddle and Coleman handling the goal-line work, I’ll pay -120 to lay less than a field goal.

Projected score: Broncos 24, Panthers 20.

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Best bet: Over 51.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown (-135) | Stake: 1u

Dallas piled up 30 points against Arizona and still squandered a 14-point fourth-quarter lead. Quarterback Dak Prescott should drive Dallas downfield again: he has taken sacks on a scant 9.5% of pressures, and Indianapolis pressured quarterbacks on a middling 33.8% of dropbacks before trading defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to San Francisco. The Colts are losing starters in the secondary, too. Even with receiver George Pickens and tight end Jake Ferguson questionable, Prescott and running back Javonte Williams should move the chains.

Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor gets to pound away at a Dallas front yielding 2.46 adjusted yards before contact per carry. Near the goal line, the Colts have funneled 62.5% of their carries and targets inside the five his way. Getting there has been an ordeal: quarterback Daniel Jones has taken drive-killing sacks, and Indianapolis has found the end zone on just 43.3% of red-zone visits. Dallas has surrendered touchdowns on 54.8% of opponents’ visits, however. I expect Taylor to find more daylight than he did in Jacksonville and help Indianapolis answer Prescott.

Projected score: Cowboys 30, Colts 24.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

Best bet: Under 48.5 (-118) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Patrick Mahomes over 241.5 passing yards (-113) | Stake: 1u

The Jets have blitzed on 43.7% of dropbacks, and Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been maddeningly difficult to sack, going down on just 9.8% of pressures. Tight end Travis Kelce has gouged defenses for 2.79 yards per route against the blitz since 2025; he and receiver Rashee Rice both carry no game designation. Kelce has reached 59 receiving yards in all four of Rice’s full games. I’m backing Mahomes to pick out those two against the extra rushers, even if running back Kenneth Walker III caps the drives on the ground.

New York has managed touchdowns on only 33.3% of red-zone visits, while Kansas City has yielded them on just 30.8%. Jets quarterback Geno Smith gets running back Breece Hall back alongside fellow back Braelon Allen, but loses receiver Garrett Wilson. Smith threw well against Las Vegas; Kansas City should make him fight much harder for the end zone. Hall and Allen can chew through more clock, which would cut into Mahomes’ passing opportunities. I expect Kansas City to make New York settle for enough field goals to hold down the total.

Projected score: Chiefs 28, Jets 17.

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Best bet: Over 49.5 (-122) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Malik Willis over 207.5 passing yards (-111) | Stake: 1u

Miami plodded along at a miserable 52.5 plays per game through Week 4. Since then, the Dolphins have reached 60 every week, snapping the ball 2.5 seconds faster per play. Quarterback Malik Willis is still liable to lose drives behind sagging protection, but Detroit has surrendered a league-worst 297.7 passing yards per game and now loses cornerback D.J. Reed, safety Kerby Joseph and linebacker Jack Campbell. Tight end Greg Dulcich has drawn 20% of Miami’s targets over three games, with receiver Caleb Douglas threatening deeper.

Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs has piled up more than 110 scrimmage yards in six of seven games; Miami has to get him on the ground while trying to slow quarterback Jared Goff, who has carved through coverage for 8.46 yards per attempt against the Dolphins’ preferred Cover 3 and Cover 6. Center Cade Mays is out and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown remains questionable, so I’m playing the over with Miami firing back rather than laying Detroit’s spread.

Projected score: Lions 30, Dolphins 24.

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Best bet: Over 42.5 (-108) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Tyler Shough over 226.5 passing yards (-113) | Stake: 1u

New Orleans receiver Chris Olave has chewed through Cover 1 for 3.34 yards per route, and Cleveland plays that coverage on 44.2% of dropbacks. Saints quarterback Tyler Shough returns from the bye with reason to feed him. Shough attacked Pittsburgh for 278 passing yards before the break; New Orleans activated left tackle Kelvin Banks and receiver Jordyn Tyson on Saturday, although their workloads remain unconfirmed. Banks could help Shough stand in against the pressure that has been harassing him. Cleveland also has to replace defensive tackle Maliek Collins.

The Browns hand the offense to quarterback Shedeur Sanders, their announced starter even after fellow quarterback Deshaun Watson cleared concussion protocol. Sanders has barely seen the field this season, and Cleveland has already given up a bruising 33 sacks. He’ll need to find tight end Harold Fannin Jr. underneath: Fannin has ripped off 2.80 yards per route against New Orleans’ preferred Cover 3, and the Saints have allowed opponents to succeed on a generous 50.6% of passing plays. I expect Sanders to connect on enough of those shorter throws to move Cleveland downfield. New Orleans has labored on the ground, too; Shough should have to throw them downfield.

Projected score: Saints 26, Browns 20.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Best bet: Giants -3 (-118) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: J.J. McCarthy over 208.5 passing yards (-111) | Stake: 1u

Philadelphia sends out quarterback Joe Milton III behind a line missing tackle Lane Johnson and center Cam Jurgens, with receivers DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks also out. Giants edge rusher Abdul Carter ought to harass Milton through his first Eagles start. Philadelphia can still pound away at New York, whose defense has allowed 4.8 yards per carry. Running back Saquon Barkley and Milton’s mobility should help the Eagles chew up clock and reduce how often that battered passing offense has to rescue a possession.

New York quarterback J.J. McCarthy has healthier tackles and receiver Malik Nabers, who pulled in 11 of 14 targets on their 45 shared routes. McCarthy put up 252 passing yards against Houston; Philadelphia has mustered pressure on a feeble 28.9% of dropbacks. Giants running back Cam Skattebo ran up 124 rushing yards in that Houston win but is now doubtful, with fellow back Tyrone Tracy on injured reserve. McCarthy may have to throw more, and the Eagles have done little to suggest they’ll get after him often enough. I’ll lay the field goal with New York.

Projected score: Giants 24, Eagles 17.

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

Best bet: Rams -4.5 (-120) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Kyren Williams anytime touchdown (-150) | Stake: 1u

Rams running back Kyren Williams has succeeded on a league-best 62.5% of carries. Washington has surrendered touchdowns on 58.1% of red-zone possessions and remains without defensive tackles Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw, even after activating fellow interior lineman Jer’Zhan Newton. Los Angeles should pound the run at them. Williams has received 46.7% of the Rams’ carries and targets inside the five, with fellow back Blake Corum still sharing that scoring work.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford can drive Los Angeles downfield through receiver Puka Nacua, who draws targets on an extraordinary 37% of his routes, but Washington’s aggressive blitzes still threaten the protection. At the other end, Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels can burn an overaggressive rush with his legs. Rams edge rusher Myles Garrett returns to chase him, although cornerback Trent McDuffie and safety Kam Curl remain questionable behind that rush. Daniels has to work without receivers Terry McLaurin, Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown. I expect Stafford and Williams to finish more drives than Washington can sustain with that depleted receiving group.

Projected score: Rams 27, Commanders 20.

4:05 p.m. ET

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

Best bet: Chargers +6 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Justin Herbert over 209.5 passing yards (-112) | Stake: 1u

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has squandered possessions with some dreadful passing, throwing two interceptions against the Rams despite finishing with 257 passing yards. The Texans play Cover 3 on 40.1% of dropbacks; against it, Herbert has torn through coverage for 8.59 yards per attempt, and receiver Ladd McConkey has gouged it for 3.03 yards per route. Houston has also yielded an 11.8% explosive-pass rate, second-highest in the league, and loses safety Reed Blankenship. I’m backing Herbert’s yardage despite Los Angeles’ maddening trouble finishing drives.

Houston can harass Herbert behind the Chargers’ battered line. Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud should also hit tight end Dalton Schultz against Los Angeles’ two-high looks, though running back Woody Marks may leave him throwing to rescue possessions. In five career games with at least 18 carries, Marks has never squeezed out more than 3.8 yards per rush. Fellow back David Montgomery is out. Chargers edge rusher Khalil Mack and linebacker Daiyan Henley carry no game designation, so Houston faces them with limited help from their backs. I’m taking the six points with Los Angeles.

Projected score: Texans 23, Chargers 20.

4:25 p.m. ET

Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

Best bet: Raiders +9.5 (-105) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Kirk Cousins over 247.5 passing yards (-111) | Stake: 1u

Las Vegas quarterback Kirk Cousins has fired multiple touchdown passes in seven of eight games. Against San Francisco’s Cover 3, he can go back to tight end Brock Bowers, who has shredded that coverage for a tremendous 3.93 yards per route; Cousins has averaged 9.20 yards per attempt. The 49ers have allowed 146.4 receiving yards per game on throws within 10 yards of the line. Bowers and fellow tight end Michael Mayer can work those underneath windows, although Cousins has to get those passes off against a front welcoming edge rusher Nick Bosa and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner.

San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey should tear into Las Vegas on the ground. The Raiders have allowed backs a spacious 3.13 adjusted yards before contact per carry. The 49ers still lack receivers Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and Christian Kirk, however, and I expect Cousins to lead enough scoring drives through the air to stay within 9.5. Bosa and Buckner could overwhelm his protection. At -105, I’ll take that risk with Cousins feeding Bowers against a coverage they have both handled so well.

Projected score: 49ers 30, Raiders 24.

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Best bet: Packers +3.5 (-118) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Drake Maye over 229.5 passing yards (-111) | Stake: 1u

New England quarterback Drake Maye has gouged defenses for 8.80 yards per attempt against two-high coverage, which Green Bay leans on for 67.8% of dropbacks. The Packers have smothered man/gap runs for 2.85 yards per carry, so Maye may have to attack through the air on early downs behind the Patriots’ shaky interior line. Receiver Mack Hollins is activated, but tight end Hunter Henry remains questionable, with receiver A.J. Brown and running back TreVeyon Henderson out. Maye should connect on some shorter throws: Green Bay has yielded 139.1 receiving yards per game within 10 air yards.

Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love has manufactured multiple touchdowns in every game, with the Packers now throwing on 66.1% of plays. Tight end Tucker Kraft should help him beat New England’s man coverage (32.5% man rate), having averaged 2.88 yards per route against man coverage since last season. Love’s own protection is abysmal, and Green Bay loses edge rusher Micah Parsons on defense. Maye should do more damage. I still like Love and Kraft to sustain enough drives to stay close. I’m taking the field goal and the hook.

Projected score: Patriots 24, Packers 23.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Best bet: Cardinals +8.5 (-110) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown (-125) | Stake: 1u

Seattle quarterback Drew Lock fired all three of his touchdowns to receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba in September’s 31-7 win over Arizona. Smith-Njigba scorched Arizona for nine catches and 155 yards; against the two-high looks Arizona uses on a league-leading 69% of dropbacks, he has averaged a superb 4.21 yards per route. I’m backing Smith-Njigba to find the end zone again. Lock practiced on a limited basis with his elbow injury but carries no game designation, and Seattle now has to protect him without left tackle Charles Cross and guard Quenton Nelson.

The Seahawks also have to replace defensive tackle Leonard Williams, edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu and nose tackle Brandon Pili. Cardinals running back Tyler Allgeier should find more running room against those replacements, with fellow backs Jeremiyah Love and Bam Knight unavailable. Arizona quarterback Gardner Minshew II has to get the ball out behind his own depleted line and connect with tight end Trey McBride. I’m bracing for some ugly possessions behind those lines, but Allgeier and McBride should grind out enough first downs for Arizona to stay within 8.5.

Projected score: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 20.

8:20 p.m. ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Best bet: Bears -6 (-110) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Caleb Williams over 247.5 passing yards (-112) | Stake: 1u

Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams and coach Ben Johnson opened Monday’s win by marching downfield on a 17-play touchdown drive. The Bears won seven of 15 third downs and finished all four red-zone visits with touchdowns. Williams has burned the blitz for +0.23 EPA/dropback, with tight end Colston Loveland catching at least six passes for at least 65 yards in three straight games. Tampa Bay loses edge rusher Yaya Diaby, too. Johnson has his quarterback and tight end playing beautifully together; the Bears have become maddeningly difficult to get off the field.

Tampa Bay bulldozed Carolina and Atlanta for 584 rushing yards over two wins. Chicago’s newly acquired defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons should make Tampa Bay grind much harder on the ground, although the Bears have a short week after Monday’s West Coast trip. Their injured corners could also leave some openings for Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, whose receiver Emeka Egbuka remains questionable. Mayfield has gone down on a brutal 29.2% of pressures. Simmons should help put him into longer passing downs. I trust Williams on those third downs more than Mayfield, and I’m laying six.

Projected score: Bears 27, Buccaneers 20.