The college football season rolls along this week with a number of notable matchups across the Power 4 and Group of 6 ranks. One contest that is going a bit under the radar in the Group of 6 takes place in the Pac-12, where we’ll see the Utah State Aggies host the Fresno State Bulldogs.
Fresno State enters this game coming off the high of its best win of the season; an impressive upset over Oregon State. On the other side, Utah State picked up its third win of the season in convincing fashion over Colorado State. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s college football game between Fresno State and Utah State.
Fresno State is a 1.5-point favorite for this matchup with the total listed at 43.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig into the odds and my best bet on Saturday’s matchup, and don’t miss our complete coverage of all of the Week 10 college football action at DraftKings Network.
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Fresno State vs. Utah State Prediction
Utah State was something of an afterthought heading into its first season in the Pac-12, and the season was basically playing out as expected for a team that was projected to be near the bottom of the conference standings. However, something has flipped over the past six weeks, as the Aggies have covered the spread in four of their last five games while winning three of those contests in the process. There is some momentum around this team and you have to give Bronco Mendenhall’s group a ton of credit for not quitting on the season following a brutal 0-3 start to the campaign.
The Aggies are something of an old school bunch; they go as their defense goes. For the most part, the defense has held up its end of the bargain. Utah State’s defense flashed against Washington earlier in the season, but the unit has really come into its own over the last two weeks, having held Texas State and Colorado State to a combined 34 points in a pair of sweat-free covers. These are two of the most dynamic offenses in the nation, with both teams routinely hanging 40+ points against quality competition. Both of those elite units were shut down by Mendenhall’s group, and I don’t expect the Aggies to be intimated by what Fresno State brings to the table.
To their credit, Fresno State played its best game of the season in a win over Oregon State a week ago. However, that game was at home and it was catching the Beavers in the midst of a winning streak and at their peak in the market. This game will be much slower-paced and decided by defense and special teams; advantage Utah State in that department. Furthermore, the Aggies offense has come along a bit with McCae Hillstead now under center, and they’ll be taking on a Fresno State defense that is barely inside the top 100 in success rate allowed and still surrendered 450 yards a week ago.
Fresno State vs Utah State Best Bet
This is not the most glamorous game on Saturday’s massive slate, but it’s a spot where the home team still has a bit of value as a slight underdog. Utah State has held three consecutive opponents to 16 points or fewer at home, and I fully expect the Aggies to have a strong defensive game plan in place for a Fresno State offense that is still a very middling unit on a down-to-down basis. Let’s back Utah State to spring the small upset in Logan.