Ravens vs. Jaguars NFL DFS Value Picks for Thursday Night Football

The Ravens are hosting the Jaguars for Week 9’s edition of Thursday Night Football. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Jacksonville is favored by 10 points, and this game carries a total of 39.5 points.

DraftKings is offering some huge Showdown contests for this matchup. Below, I have featured two of my favorite NFL DFS value plays to consider for this Showdown slate.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (JAX @ BAL)

Ravens vs. Jaguars NFL DFS Value Picks for Thursday Night Football

RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,100 CPT, $3,400 FLEX)

With Bhayshul Tuten (ankle/foot) unlikely to play tonight, Rodriguez Jr. is a core play for this Showdown slate. Tuten has yet to practice this week, and ever since Liam Coen became the Jaguars HC last season, no Jacksonville player who has missed practice for an entire week has suited up for that week’s game, per Sports Illustrated’s John Shipley.

Rodriguez Jr. will start at running back with Tuten inactive and see a large workload. This season, Tuten is averaging 15.7 carries per game while logging 55.3% of the snaps. In the passing game, the back is running a route on 38% of his team’s dropbacks and garnering a target on 19% of his routes. Rodriguez Jr. should fill this void and thrive.

Rodriguez Jr. has been effective this season, averaging 4.6 YPC with a 55.6% rushing success rate. He is scoring 0.41 FPTS per snap. For perspective, this ranks 29th among all backs, ahead of Jonathan Taylor, Jaylen Warren, and Chuba Hubbard, just to name a few.

While this Ravens’ defense Rodriguez Jr. is facing tonight is giving up the seventh-fewest yards per rush this season (3.8), Baltimore is allowing the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (10), and the Jaguars should rely on their running game as a 10-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rodriguez Jr. should see a minimum of 15 touches, giving him elite upside relative to his low salaries. Last season, Rodriguez Jr. saw 15+ touches in three games with the Commanders, and he produced 12.9 FPTS per game in those tilts. Assuming Tuten is out as expected, Rodriguez Jr. will be the unquestioned No.1 value on the slate. The back will be a strong choice for your captain spot, and rostering him there will open up endless possibilities for your lineup.

TE Nate Boerkircher, Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,400 CPT, $1,600 FLEX)

Boerkircher is trending up right now, scoring 4.0, 8.8, and 10.1 FPTS the last three weeks, including a touchdown in each of the last two. The 6’5″ 250 pound second-round pick out of Texas AM from this past NFL Draft has quietly been eating into Brenton Strange’s role.

Over the last three weeks, Boerkircher is running a route on 36.9% of his team’s dropbacks compared to 56.9% for Strange. In the first four games, Strange handled a 70.3% route rate, while Boerkircher was at 24.7%.

This past Sunday vs. the Colts, Boerkircher saw a season-high 45.5% route rate, and while one would assume this was a product of the Jaguars blowing out the Colts, 42-7, Strange only ran one more route than Boerkircher in the first half and for the game. It appears that Boerkircher and Strange are in a near split at tight end for the Jaguars, and Boerkircher should see a route around 50% tonight, making him a terrific value at his cheap salary.

Boerkircher is commanding a target on 14% of his routes, and he is averaging 1.32 YPRR this season. The rookie has seen nine targets, and four of those looks have come in the redzone. Boerkircher should see more redzone targets tonight, and this Ravens’ defense he is going against is giving up the fourth-most touchdowns to tight ends this season (six). Baltimore has yielded three touchdowns to tight ends in its last two games, and Boerkircher has a real chance to find the pay dirt for the third straight week in this spot.