Entering the 2026 NFL season, the Baltimore Ravens were tied with the Buffalo Bills for second-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +1000. After a 3-1 start to the season, things remained optimistic, but then the injury gods got bored, and quarterback Lamar Jackson sprained his ankle, causing him to miss three games. Baltimore went 1-2 over that span, and Jackson returned for the marquee Week 8 matchup with the Bills.
Someone definitely angered the injury gods, because Jackson injured his right thumb on the first play and didn’t return. Tyler Huntley came in and suffered a turf toe injury.
Joe Fagnano was the last man standing last week and went 10-for-21 for 91 yards and an interception. He will get the start in this one, as the expected trade for Jacoby Brissett won’t be completed until the weekend. Fagnano is 6-foot-3, 230 pounds and played his college ball at Maine and UCONN. He went undrafted in the 2026 NFL Draft. He’s known as a pocket passer with good decision-making, but his arm strength is lacking. He didn’t look great last week, but they threw him into the fire for his first NFL game with no preparation. That said, the game plan will likely revolve around Derrick Henry for as long as the game script allows.
Unfortunately, Baltimore has the 28th-best offensive line per PFF. Henry leads the NFL with 158 carries, but is averaging only 4.0 yards per carry. In his prior two seasons with the Ravens, he was averaging 5.2 and 5.9 yards per carry.
Defensively, Baltimore is 21st in pressure rate despite blitzing at the 10th-highest rate. The team has racked up 17 sacks, while its eight turnovers are tied for the eighth-fewest in the NFL.
Baltimore’s pass defense has allowed 11 pass touchdowns, a 65.5% completion percentage and a 95.2 passer rating. The unit’s 11.3 yards per completion are tied for the ninth-most.
Meanwhile, the rush defense has allowed 3.8 yards per carry and 102.8 rushing yards per game. Their 10 rushing touchdowns allowed are tied for the third-most.
The Jacksonville Jaguars were +3000 to win the Super Bowl before the season began. After eight weeks, the Jaguars are +950, the fourth-lowest odds.
Jacksonville’s defense has been one of the league’s best. The 111 points allowed are the second-fewest, while the 12 turnovers are tied for the sixth-most.
Jacksonville blitzes at the 24th-highest rate, yet the pressure rate is 15th-best. The one blemish is that it has racked up only 15 sacks, tied for the eighth-fewest. The unit has allowed eight pass touchdowns, a 66.5% completion percentage and an 84.9 passer rating. They rank third in the NFL with nine interceptions.
Meanwhile, the run defense has been elite. The Jaguars have allowed an NFL-low 3.4 yards per carry and 77.4 rush yards per game. Their four rushing touchdowns allowed are tied for the third-fewest.
At the same time, opposing offenses are forced towards the air because the Jaguars offense is so potent.
Jacksonville has already piled up 24 total touchdowns this season, tied for the seventh-most in the NFL. Three blowouts, though, limited the offense as Liam Coen brought the dogs back into the house.
Trevor Lawrence has attempted fewer than 30 passes five times, with only 14 attempts last week in a 42-7 drubbing of the Indianapolis Colts. The Jaguars’ 201 total pass attempts are the third-fewest. Lawrence has thrown for 300+ yards only twice. That said, he’s thrown at least three touchdowns four times.
Three Jaguars receivers have garnered over 30 targets: Parker Washington (48), Brenton Strange (35) and Jakobi Meyers (31). All have racked up over 300 yards, with Washington leading the way with 432 yards and four touchdowns.
Bhayshul Tuten leads Jacksonville with 110 carries for 492 yards and three touchdowns. He’s also caught 15 of 16 targets for 181 yards and three touchdowns. Chris Rodriguez has rushed 45 times for 209 yards and three touchdowns. While Rodriguez has only played 20% to 30% of snaps, Tuten is questionable for this one, so he could be thrust into a prominent role.
Jacksonville enters as a 10-point road favorite with -520 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Baltimore is a +390 underdog, with the game total set at O/U 39.5 points.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (JAX @ BAL)
Captain’s Picks
RB Bhayshul Tuten ($14,700 CP): Tuten is questionable for this one due to ankle and foot issues. He’s a game-time decision, so if he plays, the ownership could be lower than usual. That said, if he’s ruled out, I’d pivot to Chris Rodriguez ($5,100), who would likely see the bulk of the work at running back and garner those money touches near the goal line. The Jaguars are heavy favorites facing an undrafted rookie in his first career start, while their run defense is one of the best in the game. I’m not expecting much offensive competency from Baltimore, so Jacksonville’s passing volume will likely be muted again, which means a ground-and-pound attack.
UTIL Plays
RB Justice Hill ($3,200): Hill has played around 40% of snaps all season as the pass-catching back. Last week, he rushed three times for 15 yards and caught four of eight targets for 20 yards. Derrick Henry is unlikely to find much success on the ground in this one, while the Jaguars should put up points, leading to Fagnano dropbacks and dumpoffs to Hill. Jacksonville is tied for the 10th-most receptions allowed to opposing running backs this season.
QB Trevor Lawrence ($10,600): I’m not expecting much passing volume from Lawrence, but the Jaguars will likely dominate the time of possession on offense. The rushing attack should take precedence, but the pass-game efficiency should be sublime. Lawrence has four games with at least three touchdowns, including two performances with four. In three of those contests, Lawrence attempted fewer than 30 passes, and last week’s 14 attempts produced three touchdowns.
DST Jaguars ($5,800): The Jaguars’ rush defense should bottle up the Ravens’ rushing attack, forcing more Fagnano dropbacks. And that means more opportunities for sacks, fumbles and interceptions. This unit has put up double-digit FPTS three times this season, with a season-high 20 FPTS last week.
Fades
RB Derrick Henry ($15,300): The Jaguars’ run defense is one of the best in the league, so Henry will likely struggle, especially since the Ravens’ offensive line has been one of the worst units this season. In addition, the box will likely be stacked, with a rookie quarterback under center. Finally, Justice Hill is the pass-catching back, and the game script will likely call for plenty of dropbacks.
Outcome
It’s football and strange things happen on Thursday night. That said, Jacksonville should dominate this game in all three phases. Jaguars onslaught.
