The NBA is back in action tonight with 14 games on a loaded Wednesday schedule. Two perennial playoff teams go head to head in Oklahoma City when the Thunder host the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the current iteration of this OKC squad looks very different than the one that looked like a favorite to get back to the Western Conference Finals. Weathering numerous injuries becomes the priority, and even with the Cavs underperforming, emerging with a win tonight may not be easy.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Cavaliers vs. Thunder matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cavaliers vs. Thunder prediction, preview
The Thunder won their first four games before suffering back-to-back losses as they scrambled to deal with a depleted rotation. Former All-Stars Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are expected to miss significant time and are out for the foreseeable future along with Cason Wallace, one of the team’s best role players. While they got back on the right foot in their last game – a 117-112 win over this same Cavaliers roster they face again tonight – the outlook for Oklahoma City is certainly dampened for the moment even at 5-2. The team ranks 17th in NETRTG at +0.3 and is far better on the defensive side of things than on offense. As it stands, the Thunder are seventh in opponent PPG with 107.7 allowed, ranking 11th in DEFRTG. Offensively? They’re 25th in scoring with 108.0 PPG and fall 21st in OFFRTG. OKC is an interior-oriented team at 28th in 3PA per game, though a 43.8% FG% ranks 24th across the league. This group is also ninth in rebounding with 46.6 boards per contest and fifth in blocks per game with 6.0, but don’t expect a ton of ball movement. The Thunder are last in assists per contest with only 21.1.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is shouldering a huge workload as usual, but he has to be even more sharp on a nightly basis with less help surrounding him. He’s averaging 28.4 points and 4.0 assists, but his shooting splits are down considerably from last year – his FG% has fallen by over 10 percentage points, with his 3P% dropping by over five. Ajay Mitchell is playing a key role as a secondary scorer with 17.0 PPG, but he’s shooting just 19.0% from deep. Jared McCain averages 10.3 PPG, but he’s the lone other player in double figures. Beyond him, Isaiah Hartenstein is posting 9.3 points and a team-best 9.9 rebounds.
The Cavaliers are in much better shape when it comes to the injury report, though both Jaylon Tyson and Peyton Watson are out tonight. Still, their 4-3 record isn’t quite the start they’d hoped for coming into the year. The good news is that they’re 11th in NETRTG at +3.5 and have been one of the league’s best offenses, scoring the fifth-most PPG with 119.7 and ranking seventh in OFFRTG. In inverse fashion to the Thunder, their defense is weak, though, allowing the 23rd-most PPG to opponents at 116.1 and ranking 15th in DEFRTG. They’re notably fourth in 3PM and seventh in 3PA per game, so expect uptempo offense that fires away from downtown. They’re also fourth in rebounds per game with 47.9 and sit second in assists per contest with 29.0, playing efficient ball and largely limiting turnovers. Their high pace is a double-edged sword, though, since the Cavs allow a league-high 95.4 FGA per game to opponents.
Cleveland is led in scoring by Donovan Mitchell, but his average of 21.9 PPG is down a full six points from last season’s average, even despite his solid efficiency. He is pitching in 5.4 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game, though, so he’s still making an impact even with his points average down. Evan Mobley’s 19.1 points and 8.0 rebounds per game both rank second on the team, with fellow big man adding 15.1 points and a team-best 8.7 boards a night. James Harden brings 16.3 points and a team-high 6.3 assists, too. One standout who also deserves a nod is Meleek Thomas, the 20-year-old rookie producing 14.0 PPG through his first four career games.
Cavaliers vs. Thunder pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Thunder a 3.5-point favorite at home tonight with -161 odds on the Moneyline. The Cavaliers are a +136 underdog to win outright on the road with the total set at 226.5 combined points.
These teams last met on Monday, which saw OKC pull out a 117-112 victory on the road in which Gilgeous-Alexander powered the way forward with 43 points and eight assists. In that game, the Thunder defense clearly made up the difference as they allowed no more than 17 points to any individual scorer for Cleveland. However, I don’t personally see SGA repeating that performance, nor does it seem likely that the entirety of the Cavs’ lineup is largely contained in the scoring column again here.
The Cavaliers are pretty clearly the better team in terms of overall talent when comparing the available names on either side of this matchup, though the Thunder do have one of the best players in the world in their corner. One can expect a better showing on the glass from Cleveland’s bigs, who were out-rebounded by eight last time out but have largely been a great pairing on the boards. If the Cavs’ defenders can even slow down Gilgeous-Alexander and force anyone else on the opposing side other than the two-time MVP to beat them, this should be a spot in which they can snag a road upset.
