Coming into this season, both the Toronto Raptors and the Denver Nuggets believed they had a puncher’s chance at an NBA title. They have star talent, proven identities, and, most of all, belief. Early in the season, that has been sorely tested, as both sides have suffered tough-to-swallow losses. Which team will come out of this midweek showdown with momentum?
The Nuggets enter as 4.5-point home favorites, with the game total set at 231.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s my prediction and best bet for this inter-conference matchup.
Raptors vs. Nuggets Preview
So far, the Toronto Raptors have been much more impressive than their 4-3 record. According to Cleaning the Glass, Toronto ranks in the top ten in both offensive and defensive rating, one of only five teams with that distinction. That’s a big development given their early injury woes; Kawhi Leonard, returning north for the first time since 2019, left with a left knee injury after only two games. He’s expected to return soon, but frequent injuries are nothing new for Leonard, as they are for starting center Jakob Poeltl. Their starting big man has been dealing with shoulder bursitis. And despite their hobbled starting lineup, they continue to perform well.
Much of that is thanks to Scottie Barnes’ excellence. One of the league’s best defenders, Barnes is averaging 24.4 points per game early on as he continues to grow his offensive game. That kind of two-way impact gives them a high floor night to night, and he has plenty of help up and down the roster. RJ Barrett has comfortably stepped into a role as the second scoring option sans Leonard, and Immanuel Quickley isn’t shy about taking a shot. They have a trio of capable defenders in Collin Murray-Boyles, Jamal Shead, and Ja’Kobe Walter to complement Barnes’ defensive tone-setting. They’re relentless when playing their best, and it’s a treat to watch.
Denver has been considerably less inspiring. They’ve been spinning their wheels since the championship run, and the roster still looks unimposing behind Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon. Cam Johnson hasn’t been the presence they expected when they acquired him from the Nets. DeMar DeRozan looks like a guy who realized he’s accidentally become too important at work. To make matters worse, Jokic hasn’t been as transcendent offensively as we’re used to, making a difficult equation even tougher. All that adds up to a team in the late teens in offensive and defensive rating, which doesn’t make a contender if they keep this up.
It’ll be fascinating to see what Jokic can do against this Raptors defense. Toronto will have plenty of active hands trying to stop his dribbling and passing, and rebounding is no easy feat against them. If he can get the shots he wants in the paint, it’ll be a long night for the Raptors; if they can bottle him up and keep Denver’s shooters contained, they have to like their chances.
Raptors vs. Nuggets Pick, Best Bet
When you watch the Raptors play, you can tell they want it. When you watch the Nuggets play, it’s hard to say the same. A physical, talented team like Toronto comes into Denver’s house and knocks their teeth out early. I don’t expect Denver’s offense to weather the storm.
