The drumbeat of preseason hype doesn’t always translate to fantasy breakouts, which is a lesson that plenty of people unfortunately learned about Terrance Ferguson. The Rams’ tight end was expected to put up numbers in this passing attack, but injuries and other circumstances have otherwise put a damper on his season. Now, though, the stage may be set for the breakout after all.
As a potential return nears for the young talent, is Ferguson a name to stash on the Week 9 waiver wire?
Should you stash Terrance Ferguson in fantasy?
A second-round pick in last year’s draft, Terrance Ferguson has shown some serious flashes of talent when healthy. As a rookie, he caught just 11 passes but produced 231 yards and three touchdowns on that limited share of opportunities. What’s notable about that line is that he averaged a ridiculous 21.0 YDS/REC and ranked ninth in YDS/TGT at 9.24 among all tight ends to run at least 100 routes. He produced a 70.0% explosive play rate (that to be fair, is unstainable for anyone) and also paced the position with an 18.32 aDOT that was 7.0 yards greater than the next-closest tight end.
What we saw from Ferguson in his rookie season was an incredibly explosive player with immense downfield threat. He hasn’t quite lived up to that in year two, but he’s also played a lot less. He’s appeared in just three games as an ankle injury has kept him off the field, but he has seven catches for 63 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. Almost all of his production came in Week 2, a game in which he had six grabs for 54 yards and that touchdown on nine targets.
Ferguson was hurt in Week 3 and hasn’t returned since due to his ankle sprain, but Sean McVay said on Monday that the tight end may return to practice this week. The exact quote from the Rams’ head coach used the phrase “more likely than not” in reference to opening the 21-day practice window for the young playmaker, though as of Tuesday, there hasn’t been further development on that front.
Still, if he does get back on the field this week, Ferguson could pay off in a big way for fantasy managers.
Versatile usage from all around the formation is what the bull case for Ferguson centered around prior to the season, and it remains true today. Through three games, one of which he left early, he ran 42.9% of his routes from the slot and 16.7% from out wide, logging an inline rate of just 38.1% with 2.4% of routes coming out of the backfield. That’s the kind of usage we want to see, frankly. He can definitely get on the field regardless, though – Los Angeles is still running 13 personnel with three tight ends at an NFL-high 35.0% rate, per Fantasypointsdata, and the Rams rank eighth in target share to the position at 27.4%.
Beyond that, though, Adams is on IR with an injury that’s expected to keep him out for several more weeks at minimum, and the roster is notably thin at receiver. With the veteran wideout sidelined, Ferguson could see more snaps from alignments that are more conducive to fantasy points with less responsibility as a blocker. McVay will find ways to get his best playmakers on the field, and as things stand, Ferguson is one of his most explosive pass-catchers.
Will the tight end enter the lineup and immediately produce? It’s tough to tell, especially given the nature of the ankle sprain that’s kept him out for the last five games . If he’s 80-90% recovered and looks like his usual self out there, he could certainly command targets from Matthew Stafford from the jump. If he gets chances to run deeper routes and work downfield like he did last year, he could definitely become a fantasy contributor.
In short, Ferguson is a stash add at the moment with sky-high upside. The Rams face the Commanders, Cardinals, Packers, Chiefs and 49ers prior to the fantasy football playoffs – three of those are positive matchups. He also faces the Cowboys in the first week of the playoffs, which would obviously be a smash spot for all Los Angeles pass-catchers. There are factors working in his favor at the moment, so Ferguson is a player to consider stashing from the waiver wire as soon as Week 9, especially if he winds up practicing before Sunday’s game.
