Week 8 didn’t go exactly as planned for the Kansas City Chiefs. Facing their biggest opponents, the Denver Broncos, the Chiefs needed to get back on track after a humiliating loss to the Seahawks. But they fell just short, failing to score on the final play. Despite the bad, there was a lot of good, including rookie running back Emmett Johnson. The 23-year-old had the game of his life, catching five passes for 128 yards and a score while adding 15 yards on the ground. Should the rookie be a waiver-wire fantasy football target this week? Let’s break it down.
Year-to-Date Production
Calling Week 8 a breakout for Johnson feels like an understatement. In Weeks 1-7 of his rookie season, Johnson totaled 171 scrimmage yards; he amassed 143 in Week 8 alone and scored his first career touchdown. It nearly doubled his fantasy production for the year, going from 26.1 total PPR points to 51.4. Everyone marveled at his 73-yard touchdown, and rightfully so, but his sole carry of the day was arguably more impressive.
He has a clear stranglehold on the RB2 job in Kansas City and has shown the kind of ability that demands usage. But is that going to translate to success?
Rest of Season Outlook
The big problem in Johnson’s way is how absurdly good Kenneth Walker III is. During his first seven games with the Chiefs, Walker has piled up 770 rushing yards and six scores while being more involved in the passing game than expected. The underlying numbers back up his dominance: he’s second in total EPA among running backs with over 100 carries this year. Averaging over 23 touches per game, he’s the clear workhorse for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense.
Unless Walker gets injured, Johnson will have to find a way to carve out standalone value. That can be a tricky proposition. But it’s not completely unreasonable to consider, largely because of Kansas City’s results. After a 5-0 start, they’ve lost two straight games to elite Seahawks and Broncos defenses, and Walker struggled throughout. Against his old team, Walker ran 14 times for 36 yards while catching four passes for 21 yards. His Denver performance was better, but he managed a measly 69 yards on 21 carries and four catches for 15 yards. It’s jarring to see Walker having such low yardage totals after his first five weeks of the season. With a losing streak to end and a workhorse back struggling, perhaps it’s time for Johnson to get more touches.
Fantasy Verdict
In all likelihood, Johnson’s prospects as a viable starter are low as long as Kenneth Walker is healthy. It’s tough betting on big plays being consistently broken out of 5-10 touches a game, and there aren’t a lot of touchdowns to go around here. I’d still scoop up Johnson as a priority handcuff if he’s available in any format, but he’s a lottery ticket in case of injury, not a guy you can start in a FLEX spot.
