The Rockets get a chance to interrupt Boston’s five-game winning streak tonight, with the Celtics traveling to Houston after Sunday’s 108-97 victory in Orlando. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET at Toyota Center. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston is a 5.5-point favorite (-106), with the Rockets -197 on the Moneyline and the total at 216.5.
Houston will be without Steven Adams (right soleus strain) and Clint Capela (ankle), while Reed Sheppard (back) is questionable, potentially thinning its depth. Those frontcourt developments matter, although Houston’s offensive versatility gives it several ways to attack anyway.
For the Celtics, Mitchell Robinson will be available tonight, but Paul George will not.
Let’s break down tonight’s matchup.
Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets preview, prediction
Boston is on a roll right now offensively. The Celtics are averaging 118.7 PPG while ranking sixth in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating. Star forward Jayson Tatum is fully running the show now that Jaylen Brown is gone. Tatum is averaging 28.3 PPG and 7.7 APG, with his assist numbers being a representation of how central he has become to this team’s attack. This is also illustrated by his career-high 32.9% usage rate. And the scary part is that Tatum is still cold from three, only connecting on 24.4% of them so far. He’ll wake up eventually, which will likely take his scoring to another level that we still haven’t seen yet. Needless to say, he’s officially bounced all the way back after his injury.
Newly acquired veteran Paul George has also been balling, supplying 20.7 PPG, 6 RPG, and 5 APG of his own. George’s ability to facilitate the offense when Tatum isn’t on the floor is valuable to the Celtics. He’s also still shooting quite well from deep, hitting at 38.8% from three. Unfortunately, George will be out tonight, which cedes some playmaking responsibilities to Tatum and Derrick White.
Houston’s early results have been even more impressive. The Rockets are 6-1, with a league-leading 122.6 offensive rating and the second-best net rating at +12.6. They beat Oklahoma City 119-98 on Saturday and had Sunday off. Fred VanVleet is expected back after sitting on Saturday, restoring another creator to an offense already featuring Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun. Durant is averaging 22.0 PPG on 51.1% shooting, while Sengun supplies 22.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 7.4 APG. Houston can run offense through its center, initiate with VanVleet, or turn to Durant to bail them out. That variety makes the Rockets difficult to contain without conceding something elsewhere.
Jabari Smith Jr. has also been a force, knocking down 48.9% of his shots from the field while putting up 19 PPG and 5.9 RPG. If the Rockets can continue getting Smith Jr. to produce at this level of efficiency, then this offense should hum along at a top-three rate all season long.
Celtics at Rockets pick, best bet
I like Houston’s ability to make Boston defend through multiple actions. Durant’s spoken about Sengun’s gravity already, noting that teams are allowing Sengun one-on-one post matchups near the rim. Sengun can punish helpers by dishing it out to open shooters or dumping it off to cutters, but if left alone, he’s too much of a problem for most centers to handle.
VanVleet’s return should help the Rockets get into their offense earlier, leaving more time to find a favorable matchup. With 6.4 APG, he offers another passing option alongside Sengun rather than requiring Durant to create everything from the perimeter. Durant finds himself in a nice spot at his age; he can still score at will, but he doesn’t have to shoulder the offense. And if you call number 7, you’re probably getting a bucket.
There are, however, reasons Boston could still keep this close. Its offense is strong enough to punish Houston’s depleted center rotation, especially since Capela will join Adams on the sideline. Robinson’s presence will also change the rebounding matchup in favor of Boston. The Celtics demonstrated that danger in February’s meeting, outrebounding Houston 57-38 in a 114-93 victory. That was last season, so it isn’t a prediction for tonight, but controlling the defensive glass remains essential for both teams tonight. Losing George is a big blow.
Still, Houston’s current production on both sides of the ball, multiple creators, and rest advantage make laying 5.5 points pretty attractive.
