The Sunday Slip: NFL best bets, picks, predictions for 11/01/26

Hope you got your fair share of spookings, sweets, and weird old fun last night. I’m here with the betslip equivalent of a bacon egg & cheese and a coffee the size of your forearm. There’s a full day of action ahead. We might see some green, should you let me be your Virgil out of Halloween hell!

Below is my full betting slip for today’s loaded Week 8 NFL slate, with some notes on what I’d risk, some quick analyses—I have full previews of all of most of these already published, if you’re interested in more in-depth analysis. This is both a comprehensive round-up and an at-a-glance preview. Why just be one thing when you can be both? ¿Por qué no los dos? Feel?

Follow my handle @dansby_edits for all preseason and fantasy draft kit content—as well as plenty of NFL betting goodies—all season long.

Dan Johnson’s full Week 8 NFL betslip

1:00 p.m. ET

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Best bet: Ravens +3.5 (-120) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Zay Flowers over 28.5 yards on his longest reception (-108) | Stake: 1U

Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson returns to a team that owes him four competent quarters. Cincinnati scored on all five second-half possessions last week; Lamar cannot repair that defense by showing up. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen and running back James Cook can prolong the misery, although the Bills have been maddeningly obliging when opponents need a way back. They conceded three consecutive fourth-quarter touchdown drives to the Rams.

Jackson can still hurt Buffalo through the air while his ankle aches when cutting. Ravens receiver Zay Flowers caught 18 of 21 targets for 352 yards with Jackson playing, and he has shredded the Cover 3/4 combination Buffalo favors (4.53 YPRR). The Bills must defend that connection with safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson suspended and nickel corner Dee Alford questionable. I’m backing Flowers to break loose for the long catch rather than demanding 87 receiving yards. Baltimore’s missing right guard threatens the ground game; Jackson can still throw the Ravens inside the hook.

Projected score: Bills 30, Ravens 28.

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals

Best bet: Bengals -12.5 (-112) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Tee Higgins over 70.5 receiving yards (-112) | Stake: 1U

After allowing Cleveland 491 yards, Tennessee traded away defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. That is a rotten way to prepare for Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow, who has been throwing beautifully. Burrow has taken sacks on a career-low 4.4% of dropbacks, and the Titans have pressured only 30.6% of opposing dropbacks. He should have time to find Bengals receiver Tee Higgins downfield again after Higgins caught six of seven targets for 148 yards last week. Higgins should get plenty of chances in an offense throwing on 65% of neutral plays.

Tennessee running back Tony Pollard battered Cleveland for 129 rushing yards, forcing eight missed tackles. He’ll need better blocking against a Cincinnati interior that just held Ravens running back Derrick Henry to 45 yards. With receiver Carnell Tate and running back Tyjae Spears out, Titans quarterback Cam Ward also loses two alternatives. Pollard can sustain possessions, but Ward has thrown an interception in five straight games. I expect Burrow to widen the lead when Ward has to throw his way back.

Projected score: Bengals 34, Titans 17.

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

Best bet: Cowboys -7 (-110) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Trey McBride over 7.5 receptions (-123) | Stake: 1U

Dallas finally cleared proper room for running back Javonte Williams against Philadelphia: 155 yards on 25 carries, without a tackle for loss. Arizona must handle him without defensive tackle Walter Nolen, having already allowed a league-worst 29.7 points per game. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott can build on those rushing gains through receiver CeeDee Lamb, who has commanded 13.8 targets per game over the past month, with fellow receiver George Pickens still questionable.

The Cowboys’ shoddy tackling should let Arizona advance, too. Cardinals tight end Trey McBride caught ten passes against Denver; across twelve games in which quarterback Jacoby Brissett reached 40 dropbacks, McBride has averaged 11.1 targets. If Dallas jumps ahead, Brissett has good reason to go back to him repeatedly. Arizona still has to finish those drives behind unsettled interior protection, having scored touchdowns on only one of its past ten red-zone visits. I like McBride to catch eight while Prescott and Williams finish more drives in the end zone.

Projected score: Cowboys 34, Cardinals 24.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Best bet: Lions -3 (-120) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: T.J. Hockenson over 4.5 receptions (-106) | Stake: 1U

Detroit quarterback Jared Goff has been ruthlessly precise against extra rushers: 53 completions on 69 attempts for 605 yards and seven touchdowns through six games. With Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown commanding targets on 38% of his routes against blitzes, Goff has somebody to find in a hurry. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores can make identifying the rush agonizing, but Goff has shown he can beat the extra rushers with a quick throw.

Minnesota has labored to 4.7 yards per play around quarterback Kyler Murray. Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson should help him move through the shorter completions against a defense conceding 9.3 tight-end catches per game. Hockenson commanded a target on 28% of his routes through Week 5; Detroit safety Brian Branch’s return should make him work harder for those openings. Minnesota protects the ball well enough to squeeze the margin, but I’m laying three with Goff’s more dependable passing operation and backing Hockenson to catch five.

Projected score: Lions 24, Vikings 20.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Best bet: Jaguars -10 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Bhayshul Tuten over 66.5 rushing yards (-112) | Stake: 1U

Indianapolis has traded left guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner; Jacksonville can attack both replacements. Jaguars running back Bhayshul Tuten faces a defense already ranked 28th in rushing EPA allowed before losing Buckner, and he has been making defenders miss (0.23 forced missed tackles per carry). Fellow back Chris Rodriguez earned eleven carries before the bye, so Tuten still needs 67 yards while sharing the work.

Jacksonville’s defense should get him enough possessions, allowing only 51.5 rushing yards per game to running backs and threatening Indianapolis’ preferred way to protect quarterback Daniel Jones. Jones took ten sacks and committed four turnovers over his last two games; now he has to steady himself after losing Nelson. Colts tight end Tyler Warren and cornerback Sauce Gardner are cleared, restoring useful receiving and coverage help. But Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has averaged 8.84 YPA against the Cover 3/1 looks Indianapolis uses most. I expect Lawrence to put the Colts behind and make Jones throw from that weakened pocket.

Projected score: Jaguars 30, Colts 17.

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets

Best bet: Over 46.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Mason Taylor over 2.5 receptions (-130) | Stake: 1U

The Jets squandered first-and-goal inside the one against Miami, then failed to get the ball back when they needed it. Las Vegas has lost four straight while opponents punish linebackers caught between run fits and coverage. That gives Jets quarterback Geno Smith a way to work beyond receiver Garrett Wilson, with tight end Mason Taylor catching nine of twelve targets over the past two games. Las Vegas has surrendered 51 tight-end receptions; Taylor can catch three while Smith distributes the ball among his receivers.

Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins has tight end Brock Bowers to answer with, plus running back Ashton Jeanty commanding seven targets per game over the past four. The Jets lose interior defender T’Vondre Sweat and edge rusher Joseph Ossai, with fellow edge David Bailey doubtful. Cousins should get more time to find those outlets. Smith still has to finish the sort of goal-line chance New York butchered last week. Las Vegas has repeatedly broken down against play action, giving him a way to finish through the air, with Cousins equipped to trade scores.

Projected score: Jets 27, Raiders 24.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Best bet: Browns +3.5 (-110) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Jaylen Warren under 21.5 receiving yards (-115) | Stake: 1U

Having cleared concussion protocol Saturday, Cleveland right tackle Tytus Howard can help sustain last week’s under-center rushing improvement. Browns coach Todd Monken has already hurt Pittsburgh with quarterback-read runs; Cleveland’s defenders attacked the Steelers’ tight-end blocks with early-down run pressure. Pittsburgh’s line has started moving people for running backs Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle, but Cleveland has a demonstrated counter. Monken can also spare quarterback Deshaun Watson some difficult dropbacks with that broader rushing plan. I’ll take the hook.

Dowdle has reclaimed underneath work that Warren handled in his absence. Against New Orleans, he ran routes on 56% of Pittsburgh’s dropbacks to Warren’s 44%, catching six passes to Warren’s three. Across their shared games, Warren has run routes on 41.5% of passing plays, down from 73.9% without Dowdle. Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers can find Dowdle when the deeper throws are covered, leaving Warren fewer catches to turn into yardage. Warren can run well and still fall short of 22 receiving yards.

Projected score: Steelers 20, Browns 19.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Best bet: Falcons +1.5 (-105) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Baker Mayfield under 211.5 passing yards (-111) | Stake: 1U

Tampa Bay’s linemen, tight ends and receivers cleared the way for 258 rushing yards against Carolina. Atlanta’s front, allowing only 88.9 rushing yards per game, should make those easy third downs much harder to arrange. Tampa Bay has been wretched in long yardage, converting just 19.1% of third downs requiring seven or more yards. Quarterback Baker Mayfield must negotiate those possessions without receiver Emeka Egbuka, while right tackle Luke Goedeke remains questionable.

Atlanta quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has invigorated this offense with nine touchdown passes against one interception in five starts. By unloading sooner, including checkdowns to running back Bijan Robinson, he can beat Tampa Bay’s rush before it arrives. Tampa Bay’s blockers can still move Atlanta’s replacement linebackers for running back Bucky Irving. I’m taking the small dog because Penix has better answers when the rushing stalls. With showers forecast, Mayfield has another complication in an already strained passing game. I’ll back his yardage under.

Projected score: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 20.

4:05 p.m. ET

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams

Best bet: Under 45.5 (-110) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Matthew Stafford under 33.5 passing attempts (-105) | Stake: 1U

The Rams have exhausted my patience with their special teams. They’ve changed kickers again, and another coverage fiasco could wreck this under. Rams coach Sean McVay has at least connected the running and passing games: he alternated running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum before last week’s fumble, then paired their carries with quarterback Matthew Stafford’s short throws. Stafford attempted only 29 passes against Las Vegas and has averaged fewer than five air yards per attempt in two straight games.

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert gets tackle Joe Alt and receiver Ladd McConkey back, but their offense entered the bye last in EPA/play (-0.190), averaging 15 points. Their defense has played far better (-0.028 EPA/play) and should make the Rams earn their first downs. With Rams center Coleman Shelton and tight end Colby Parkinson still questionable, McVay has blocking problems to manage, too. I expect him to split the carries and limit Stafford’s attempts. If Herbert puts the Chargers ahead early, McVay may have to abandon that plan, threatening both unders.

Projected score: Rams 24, Chargers 17.

4:25 p.m. ET

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Best bet: Chiefs -1.5 (+100) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Patrick Mahomes over 14.5 rushing yards (-111) | Stake: 1U

Kansas City gets receiver Rashee Rice and tackle Jaylon Moore back after Seattle smothered its rushing attack and crowded the short throws. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes can unload sooner with Rice available, while running back Kenneth Walker retains the carries to challenge Denver’s tackling. Walker mauled the Broncos for 173 rushing yards in the opener. Denver gets cornerback Pat Surtain back to strengthen the coverage, but safety Talanoa Hufanga is out and defensive lineman Zach Allen remains questionable.

Against this rush, Mahomes should have occasions to take off again. He rushed for 23 yards in the first meeting and has gained 30 over his past two games. Mahomes averages only 11.8 rushing yards per game, although he gains 5.75 yards per scramble. Broncos quarterback Bo Nix can attack a secondary missing Chiefs cornerback Mansoor Delane, but Denver has converted just seven of 37 third downs since Week 5. I’m backing Mahomes to escape for 15 yards, with Rice’s quick receiving work helping Kansas City avoid the punts that have troubled Nix.

Projected score: Chiefs 23, Broncos 20.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Best bet: Patriots -7 (-105) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Hunter Henry over 4.5 receptions (+107) | Stake: 1U

New England quarterback Drake Maye has been magnificent, even while his protection and depleted receivers make me squirm. On dropbacks lasting at least four seconds, he has thrown for 449 yards with a 132.7 passer rating. Receiver A.J. Brown and running back TreVeyon Henderson are out; the Patriots have started ten offensive-line combinations. Tight end Hunter Henry caught all seven targets for 71 yards against Chicago and works back toward Maye when he escapes. Against a defense allowing 7.3 tight-end receptions per game, I’ll back Henry to catch five at plus money despite rookie tight end Eli Raridon’s involvement.

Miami quarterback Malik Willis and running back Ollie Gordon have been finding plenty of room on the ground. New England’s recent tackling failures make seven uncomfortable. Maye gets a secondary allowing 76.6% completions and a 116.8 passer rating, though. With Henry and running back Rhamondre Stevenson available underneath, he can sustain drives even with Brown absent. I’m laying seven with a quarterback throwing this well against coverage this forgiving.

Projected score: Patriots 28, Dolphins 20.

8:20 p.m. ET

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Best bet: Over 40.5 (-110) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Antonio Williams over 36.5 receiving yards (-111) | Stake: 1U

Washington loses defensive tackle Daron Payne to a broken foot with two other interior options already unavailable. Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is cleared, although his hamstring and back leave his workload uncertain. Philadelphia can return to the inside runs and crossers that carried three long scoring drives against Dallas. Quarterback Tanner McKee should get time to find those shorter throws: Washington’s rushers have repeatedly arrived late despite frequent blitzing.

Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels gets to run at a defense allowing 131 rushing yards per game. Rookie receiver Antonio Williams should command more targets after fellow receiver Terry McLaurin’s season-ending injury, having run 47.8% of his routes from the slot. Williams caught four passes for 64 yards in the first Philadelphia meeting; I like him to clear 36.5 through those interior openings. Philadelphia’s healthier edge group threatens the passing, but Daniels can escape with his legs. Barkley gets a depleted front to attack across the field, and I’m taking over 40.5.

Projected score: Commanders 24, Eagles 20.