It’s rare to see such a quick turnaround for a rematch in English football. This past Thursday, Newcastle traveled to Liverpool for an EFL Cup showdown with Everton. The home side prevailed 3-1, advancing to the quarterfinals and sending Newcastle home unhappy. Now the action shifts to St. James’ Park for league play, and the Magpies will look to exact revenge upon the Toffees.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Newcastle are a +100 favorite to within 90 minutes, with odds of a draw priced at +265. Everton’s moneyline is set at +260.
Everton vs. Newcastle Pick, Best Bet
Typically, this early in the season, we compare and contrast the play styles and productivity of two teams that have not played each other. Since these two squads went full tilt against each other only four days ago, we have a near-perfect sample to size them up.
For the Toffees, that 3-1 win was the exact kind of game they wanted to play. Newcastle held plenty of possession in and around their six-yard box, but Everton’s stout defense rebuffed them for the first 88 minutes. By that point, their attack had taken complete control of the game. James Garner found the back of the net with a beautiful strike in the 34th minute, and his midfield partner Hayden Hackney doubled the lead with a clinical volley before halftime. After the Toffees weathered some pressure early in the second half, Thierno Barry sealed the deal with a goal in the 69th minute.
They’ll be hoping for a similar performance, and it starts with that back line. James Tarkowski sets the tone from the center, and Jake O’Brien, filling in for Jarrad Branthwaite, puts in a great effort. Since Branthwaite is doubtful, manager David Moyes will likely call on O’Brien again, with Michael Keane as a bench option. Vitalii Mykolenko has been rock steady on the left side of the defense, and they’re building a strong right-back partnership between Merlin Röhl and Ainsley Maitland-Niles. With defensive contributions from the midfielders and attackers, it’s no wonder Everton have weathered so many strong attacks this year.
Newcastle have to find a way to capitalize on their overloads. Left-back Lewis Hall, arguably the most important player in the Magpies’ style of play, can be elite in attack when he works on his overlapping runs. When Harvey Barnes and Joe Willock can work off of him, they’ve shown moments of magic early on.
But it relies so heavily on the same pattern. They’re not as dangerous coming through on the right and have struggled to create chances consistently. Overall, Newcastle have created only 14 big chances in the year, the third-fewest in the Premier League. They’ve found key goals at the right times to get some results early on, but it’s a problem that needs addressing in the long run.
Two factors here tilt things in Everton’s favor. One, they are very defensively sound and won’t make mistakes that give Newcastle easy chances. If they keep things in front of them, the Magpies will struggle to score. They also have a major advantage in central midfield; the Toffees got much stronger in the center over the summer, while Newcastle suffered a major blow with Bruno Guimarães’ departure. If Everton can take charge of possession early, they’ll walk out of this road contest with all three points.
