It’s finally November 1 and Week 8’s Sunday slate is upon us. The Chiefs are frontrunners in the AFC West as things currently stand, but the Broncos are the reigning division champs and are hot on their heels despite the concerns about their underperforming offense. These teams squared off in the season opener, a matchup that Kansas City won with a statement blowout. Could Denver’s fortunes change at home this time around?
Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Chiefs vs. Broncos in NFL Week 8.
Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction, preview
These Chiefs are for real with their 5-1 record, but they sure didn’t look like it last week in a terrible loss to the Seahawks. It’s true that losing to the reigning champs is no reason for panic, especially with a pass-catching corps that was quite depleted, but even still… it does hurt. However, they’re still averaging 23.8 PPG, 14th in the NFL, and have the second-best defense in terms of PPG allowed with just 17.2. The good news is that Kansas City is getting WR Rashee Rice (13 REC, 190 YDS, 1 TD) back from injury this week, providing some much-needed reinforcements for this passing attack. The offense will continue to revolve around RB Kenneth Walker III, whose 701 rushing yards rank second among halfbacks despite already having the bye week. He also has 18 receptions for 116 yards, bringing his scrimmage totals to over 800 yards with eight total touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a rough week, but he also has 1,474 yards and a 9-4 TD-INT ratio with a 64.9% completion rate. Now that Rice is back in the picture, the quarterback should have an easier time throwing the ball, especially since TE Travis Kelce continues to look quite good despite his age with 24 grabs for 343 yards and a pair of touchdowns. As a whole, the offense ranks sixth in EPA/play and leads the league in EPA/rush, also generating the fourth-highest explosive play rate. Defensively, the injury list has a couple of issues, though. CB Mansoor Delane (shoulder) has been ruled out, CB L’Jarius Sneed (knee) landed on IR, and DE R Mason Thomas (personal) is questionable.
The Broncos are pushing for the AFC West lead at 5-2, which is a far better record than the vibes surrounding the franchise right now might indicate. They’ve now won three straight games and finally scored 30 points for just the second time in seven games last week, and for the first time this season, QB Bo Nix (1,271 YDS, 7 TD, 3 INT) looked more like the signal-caller we saw over the last couple of years – he threw for 222 yards with a touchdown and ran the ball seven times for 73 yards and one additional score. WR Jaylen Waddle (26 REC, 276 YDS, 1 TD) continues to lead the team in receiving on the season, but he’s questionable this week with a chest injury; second-leading receiver, RB RJ Harvey just hit IR as well. We could see plenty of Courtland Sutton (16 REC, 168 YDS, 1 TD) as a result. In the backfield, J.K. Dobbins (87 CAR, 293 YDS, 3 TD) is likely to maintain the early-down role, but rookie Jonah Coleman (19 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD) should take on a larger role in Harvey’s absence. Overall, Denver averages just 20.6 PPG, 25th in the NFL, with the 25th-ranked EPA/play. The defense has done most of the heavy lifting to win this many games, allowing only 20.1 PPG – seventh best – with the seventh-best mark in EPA/play, too. It should be noted that S Talanoa Hufanga (ankle) is out, while S Brandon Jones (hamstring) and DL Zach Allen (hamstring) are both questionable.
Chiefs vs. Broncos pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Chiefs were a -1.5 favorite on the road with -118 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Broncos were a -102 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 40.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The injuries for both teams are enough to make me hesitate when picking this game, but with the majority of those coming on the defensive side of things, I’m partial to the over on the total. The first meeting between these teams back in Week 1 saw Kansas City win in dominant fashion, 31-10. Denver has had time to learn from that outing and the offense finally showed signs of life last week. The questionable tag for Waddle does play a pretty huge role since he’s the team’s WR1 in theory, but the Broncos have succeeded in the past couple of seasons without him, so an inactive designation wouldn’t be the end of the world. And of course, the Chiefs should bounce back fairly well from last week’s three-point performance – after scoring at least 22 points in every other game, it feels like that was a true aberration. The return of Rice does boost the outlook for their passing attack and Walker won’t be bottled up again, certainly not against a defense that falls 27th in EPA/rush allowed. All things considered, I like the over on this low total.
