We’ve got an AFC North slugfest in our Sunday NFL slate. The Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers are tied for the top of the division and will throw everything they’ve got into this divisional matchup. With two defenses poised for strong days, how can we work the angles on this matchup for player props?
Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point home favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. Cleveland is +160 to win the game outright, with the total set at a very low 38.5 points.
Let’s dive into the top player prop bets for Sunday’s clash between the Browns and the Steelers.
Browns vs. Steelers NFL Player Prop Bets
Jaylen Warren 60+ Rushing Yards and 30+ Receiving Yards (+320)
Pittsburgh’s offense has been rough for most of the season, but Jaylen Warren is a clear bright spot. Their star tailback has racked up 70+ scrimmage yards in all seven games and has only gotten warmer over the past several weeks. Warren has rushed for 90+ yards in four of his last five games, and 30+ receiving yards in five of his last six.
Cleveland’s defense has surely been solid, but run-stopping has been a problem. They’re 20th in total rushing yards allowed and 22nd in yards allowed per carry, and that includes a Jaylen Warren performance in Week 4. In that loss, Warren ran 17 times for 93 yards while catching three passes for 33 yards. I expect another massive game on the ground for Warren, and he’ll have the volume to do it through the air as well.
Rico Dowdle 30+ Rushing Yards (-130)
Why not double down on this talented Pittsburgh backfield? When they signed Rico Dowdle this offseason, the Steelers foresaw having a dynamic 1-2 punch out of the backfield. Dowdle, who ran for 1,000+ yards in his last two seasons, got off to a rocky start due to injuries and inefficiency. But now that he’s back in the lineup, Pittsburgh is getting a glimpse of what this duo can be.
In Week 6, Dowdle returned from injury, rushing for 40 yards on just seven attempts in a win over the Buccaneers. He followed that up in Week 7 with nine carries for 41 yards. In this kind of matchup, I expect 10+ carries to be there for the taking, and Dowdle will take advantage.
Aaron Rodgers Under 221.5 Passing Yards (-114)
If Cleveland can do one thing defensively, it’s defend the pass. They’re sixth in total pass yards allowed and fifth in net yards, and they continue their run of strong secondary play behind Denzel Ward. The Browns’ pass defense was on full display in their first matchup with the Steelers, holding Rodgers to only a 55% completion rate with two picks. He still ended up with 299 passing yards and three scores due to the volume and the game script, but it’s a performance Cleveland will be happy with.
I expect Pittsburgh to lean heavily on the ground game in this matchup, saving Rodgers for shorter, chain-moving completions that are still in his bag. If Warren and Dowdle get the kind of action we need, Rodgers’ numbers will shrink to our benefit.
