College basketball is back, with several marquee matchups on this week’s slate. Monday’s action is headlined by a ranked showdown in Tampa. #14 Miami is an ACC dark horse, looking to challenge conference favorites Duke and Virginia. #1 Florida has title-winning potential, bringing back numerous key contributors from last season’s loaded squad. Who has the edge during this evening’s star-studded showdown?
Florida enters this one as 4.5-point favorites (-115) over Miami. The total is set at 161.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Monday’s game between the Hurricanes and the Gators.
Miami vs. Florida prediction, preview
Don’t sleep on these Hurricanes. Head coach Jai Lucas is turning this program into a juggernaut, as evidenced by this year’s influx of talent. The U was all about getting buckets last year, and that should continue this season. Point guard Acaden Lewis, a Villanova transfer, is a massive get. The former five-star prospect averaged 12.0 points and 5.3 assists per game as a freshman with the Wildcats. Improvement from long distance (27.0 3PT%) would take the youngster’s game up a notch. He’ll partner up with some impressive returning talent, including Shelton Henderson at forward. The 6’6″ bruiser posted 13.8 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game with Miami last season. Guard Dante Allen and highly touted recruit Caleb Gaskins will be names to monitor as well.
Lucas is making a strong effort to improve this defense, as evidenced by his other big-time transfer. Somto Cyril comes over from Georgia, where he’s blossomed into an elite rim protector. The center delivered an SEC-best 2.2 blocks per game last season. He notched 9.3 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, along with a conference-leading 75.9% field goal percentage. A boost in playing time (21.2 MPG as a sophomore) could lend itself to even better numbers as a junior. Backup big DeSean Goode, a Robert Morris transfer, is another name to keep an eye on in South Beach.
There’s a reason Florida enters the upcoming season as the consensus best team in America. Other than Duke and Illinois, there isn’t even much of a debate for the top spot. Head coach Todd Golden has done a masterful job at retaining talent. The front court of Alex Condon, Reuben Chinyelu, and Thomas Haugh are returning to Gainesville; all three were on UF’s 2025 title-winning team. Dynamic guard Boogie Fland is also back, while Denzel Aberdeen is attempting to rejoin the Gators after a year with Kentucky. Even if he’s unable to play on Monday, reigning SEC Sixth Man of the Year Urban Klavzar offers stellar shooting at the two spot.
For all their scoring prowess, the Gators will be just as nasty on the defensive end. They registered a 99.3 defensive rating last season, best among all 16 SEC schools. To boot, UF easily led the conference with 6.0 blocks per game. Chinyelu is the lynchpin down low, having just won SEC Defensive Player of the Year. However, 6’11” Condon also makes things difficult inside the paint. The only chance for most opponents will be hoping for the best from three-point range. Still, that’s easier said than done. That’s an especially risky proposition this early in the season, when most players are still shaking off the rust.
Miami vs. Florida pick, best bet
The public is heavily backing Florida, which suggests there’s more value on Miami tonight. Regardless, it’s difficult to go against the nation’s number one team in this spot. The Hurricanes have enough talent to compete for a national title, but it might take some time for some of their new pieces to gel. In comparison, the Gators wield nearly unprecedented continuity, which should allow for a fast start on Monday.
