Heading into the season, the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns were expected to be serious playoff contenders. But they’ve weathered some early punches this season and have to buckle down to get things on track. Now these two Western Conference rivals face off for an important NBA Cup clash.
The Nuggets enter as 3.5-point road favorites with the game total set at 231.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into my prediction and best bet for this NBA Cup matchup.
Nuggets vs. Suns Preview
The Nuggets are facing one of the worst problems imaginable in the NBA: their elite superstar is slipping. Nikola Jokic isn’t getting to his offensive spots like he used to, and he’s not hitting shots like he used to. The shots at the rim are going down, floaters and three-pointers are up, and his efficiency is down across the board. It’s worse when you watch it: he looks slower and less coordinated. If he’s anything less than his MVP self going forward, things will be tough for the Nuggets.
It doesn’t help that their depth looks rough. DeMar DeRozan was signed to fill an important role off the bench, and so far, Denver is 16 points worse per 100 possessions with “Deebo” on the floor. They’re overly reliant on rookie Bryce Hopkins, along with veterans like Marvin Bagley III and Tyus Jones, who have not consistently made an impact at the NBA level. Perhaps their only saving grace is Trevon Brazile; the rookie is looking like an early steal.
As usual for Denver, they need the trio of Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon to stay healthy and carry them on both ends of the floor. That bet is showing diminishing returns so far.
Phoenix is having similar issues: something is going on with Devin Booker. Despite the big offseason changes, the Suns failed to acquire a real point guard, thrusting Booker into more of a distributor role. In their one win, Booker took 25 shots against the Warriors and fueled their offense with 43 points. In their two losses, Booker has taken 20 total shots combined. It was especially jarring to see him so passive against a beat-up Thunder team missing some of its best defenders. If Booker is taking a back seat offensively, that does not bode well for the Suns.
Booker isn’t the only one being asked to play a role he’s not suited for. The rest of their starters—Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Miles Bridges, and Khaman Maluach—are not high-feel players. They struggle to pass and take the most efficient shots. It’s a little too much of a your-turn-my-turn offense for the modern NBA, and to make matters worse, they lack the defensive infrastructure to insulate against these problems. Given the investment they’ve made in this roster, this has to work, or things will get ugly.
It’s all about Jokic and Maluach here. The 20-year-old Duke product has shown defensive promise, but he’ll have his hands full with the three-time MVP. Given Phoenix’s defensive situation, he won’t have much help. If the “Joker” can get it going here, they have to like their chances; if he falls short, Murray will have to pick up the slack. Brooks is far and away Phoenix’s best defender, and the two Canadian national team members know each other well; it’ll be fascinating to watch him and Murray do battle.
Nuggets vs. Suns Pick, Best Bet
I’m not holding much faith in these defenses right now. Even against less talented teams, they’ve played like a sieve. While their respective stars are struggling, the Denver and Phoenix offenses can produce strong results in the right spots. I’ll bank on a high-scoring show here as both teams go hard to build some momentum.
