After being limited in Wednesday’s practice with an ankle injury, A.J. Brown ($5,900) missed Thursday’s practice. His absence wasn’t just due to his ankle injury, but also because of a knee injury that has “flared up,” per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
This certainly doesn’t bode well for Brown’s chances of playing Sunday against the Dolphins. The Patriots are already without Romeo Doubs (shoulder) and Mack Hollins (calf). If Brown joins them on the sidelines, both DeMario Douglas ($4,400) and Efton Chism ($3,400) should see expanded roles — but which receiver will be the better fantasy target?
Week 8 Fantasy Breakdown: DeMario Douglas vs. Efton Chism
Douglas is far ahead of Chism in the Patriots’ receiver peaking order. Douglas is handling a 15.4% target share on a 64.3% route rate this season, while Chism is seeing a 7.5% target share on a 33% route rate.
Chism is averaging 1.6 YPPR, compared to 1.5 for Douglas, but the latter has been a much more productive fantasy asset. Douglas is averaging 0.26 FPTS per snap, whereas Chism is averaging 0.14. Douglas has topped 20 FPTS twice while Chism has cracked 10 FPTS twice.
Douglas also is commanding more targets with Brown, Doubs and Hollins off the field this season. With these three off the field, Douglas is seeing a target on 22% of his routes while Chism is seeing a target on 17% of his routes.
Douglas should run a route on almost all of his team’s dropbacks and he should see a strong target share if Brown sits this Sunday vs. Dolphins. Chism would also see a high route rate in this situation, but his target share would likely be lower than Douglas’s, making Douglas the better fantasy play.
That doesn’t mean Chism won’t be viable, though, as this is a great matchup vs. the Dolphins, who are giving up the third-most yards per pass this season (8.1), and both Douglas and Chism having strong performances in this spot is realistic if Brown is sidelined.
