The Spurs are hosting the Kings on Tuesday night. On DraftKings Sportsbook, San Antonio is favored by 18.5 points and the game carries a total of 232.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Spurs vs. Kings prediction, preview
After dropping their first two games of the season to the Thunder and Rockets, the Spurs notched their first win Saturday vs. the Mavericks, 122-106. San Antonio ranks just 15th in net rating and this certainly wasn’t the start most expected from the contender after making it to the NBA Finals last season.
That being said, its still very early. The Spurs are due for some positive regression on offense, as they rank 23rd in true shooting percentage (50.7%) after finishing fifth in the metric last season (59.5%). This primarily has been a result of Victor Wembanyama struggling, shooting just 37% from the field for 20.0 PPG after he averaged 25.0 PPG on 51.2% shooting a year ago.
It’s been an odd start for Wembanyama, but we all know this isn’t going to last. Once the superstar gets it together, the Spurs are going to be very tough to beat, as Wembanyama’s counterparts have been great so far – Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are all averaging over 17.0 PPG.
Wembanyama is going to find his groove soon, possibly as soon as tonight with the 0-3 Kings visiting. Sacramento ranks second-to-last in net rating and two of its losses have been by double digits. In the Kings’ season opener, the Clippers ran them out the gym, 121-96.
Sacramento’s offense has been stagnant, ranking 25th in offensive rating and dead last in assist percentage. Zach LaVine and rookie Darius Acuff Jr. have been hogging the ball, with that pairing accounting for roughly 49% of the team’s field goal attempts. They both have had big games, especially LaVine, who ranks fourth in the NBA with 29.0 PPG, but LaVine and Acuff Jr. dominating the usage has hurt the team’s offense. Both players have been weak on defense as well.
Domantas Sabonis, however, has been strong after missing most of last season with a torn meniscus. He’s averaging 18.7 points, 17.3 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game on 80.8% shooting, but his usage rate has been modest at 16.5%, which is his lowest rate since his rookie season. Meanwhile, both LaVine and Acuff Jr. are handling usage rates north of 28%.
The Kings featuring Sabonis more would be a wise move, but it’s hard to have any faith in that happening. Sacramento has been a mess under HC Doug Christie since he took over in December 2024, with a 36.0% winning percentage under the former NBA player.
To make matters worse for the Kings, Keegan Murray, who ranks second on the team in net rating this season, will be out tonight with an ankle injury. Sacramento’s net rating is an ugly -18.5 with Murray off the floor this season and the team is 17-43 with him inactive over the last two seasons. It’s hard to have any faith in the Kings tonight, so another blowout loss is likely on the horizon for this club.
Spurs vs. Kings pick, best bet
While the Spurs have underachieved this season, this is a perfect get-right spot for them with the Kings in town. San Antonio should have no trouble winning this game. This should be a lopsided affair as the Spurs – rightfully so – are an 18.5-point favorite, but backing any team to cover this large of a spread is risky.
Instead, I am more confident in this game going under its 232.5-point total. San Antonio is 3-0 to the under this season and none of its games have gone over 228 points.
