The Buffalo Sabres visit the San Jose Sharks on Tuesday night, with puck drop set for 10:30 p.m. ET at SAP Center. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Buffalo is a -148 Moneyline favorite, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Sharks vs. Sabres prediction and best bet.
Sharks vs. Sabres Odds
| Market | Buffalo Sabres | San Jose Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -148 | +124 |
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+164) | +1.5 (-198) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-125) | Under 6.5 (+105) |
Sharks vs. Sabres Betting Preview
San Jose Sharks Outlook
San Jose enters Tuesday night with a 6-5-1 record and finally gets to play at home following a six-game road trip, during which it went 3-2-1. The Sharks closed their road trip with a 6-4 loss to the Bruins on Saturday, but scored 14 combined goals across their final three games. San Jose is tied for 17th in goals per game and tied for the fifth-most goals allowed per game.
Macklin Celebrini continues to look near-generational, leading San Jose with five goals and 15 points through 10 appearances. He has recorded seven points across his past five games and is averaging nearly 23 minutes of ice time per night. Tyler Toffoli and Ivar Stenberg have added nine points apiece, while Will Smith has recorded four goals and eight points. The Sharks have been especially effective on special teams, ranking sixth in PP% and tied for sixth in total power play goals.
San Jose’s underlying numbers are not great, as the club ranks 29th in 5v5 xGoals% and 27th in 5v5 Corsi%. They have also allowed 4.03 xGoals per game, the second-most in the league, along with the seventh-most 5v5 high-danger chances per game. Yaroslav Askarov is expected to start between the pipes after posting a 3.43 GAA and .883 SV% across seven appearances, and he has allowed at least three goals in five of his seven starts.
Buffalo Sabres Outlook
Buffalo enters the matchup with a 4-4-3 record and a three-game losing streak. The Sabres most recently blew an early 2-0 lead in Saturday’s 4-3 overtime loss to Washington, primarily because Buffalo has struggled to finish its chances, ranking 23rd in goals per 60 despite ranking 17th in xGoals per 60.
Jack Quinn leads the Sabres with six goals and 11 points through 11 outings, recording seven points across his past five games. Tage Thompson has added five goals and nine points, while Owen Power has produced nine points from the blue line. Noah Ostlund has also seen his role increase, moving onto the top power play unit after recording three goals and eight points. As if the Sabres would score on the power play, though, as they rank 31st in PP%, which has been an ongoing issue for this team over the past few seasons.
The results have been inconsistent, but Buffalo’s 5v5 metrics are considerably better than San Jose’s. The Sabres rank 10th in 5v5 Corsi% and 16th in 5v5 xGoals%, while ranking tied for 12th in fewest shots allowed per game. Outside of those metrics, it’s been ugly. Buffalo has allowed the fourth-most goals per game and ranks 27th in PK%. This team has a serious goaltending issue, and it will turn to Colten Ellis to start in goal tonight. Ellis sports a 3.19 GAA and .864 SV% across three appearances, but has not played since October 12. That is not good news, given that San Jose has scored at least four goals in three of its past four games, but he offers more than Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, one of the worst-performing goaltenders in the NHL.
Sharks vs. Sabres Prediction and Best Bet
Buffalo has been the stronger team at 5v5, but it is difficult to trust Ellis behind a penalty kill that has operated at just 69.2%. San Jose’s power play has converted 26.8% of its opportunities, and the club has scored 14 goals across its past three games. On the other end, San Jose has struggled to limit quality chances and allows the second-most 5v5 xGoals against per 60.
Askarov has also allowed at least three goals in five of his seven starts, while Ellis enters with an .864 SV% and has not played in a game in two weeks. Four of Buffalo’s past five games and four of San Jose’s past five have produced at least seven total goals. With both goaltenders sporting sub-.890 save percentages and two defenses that have struggled in different ways, I’m backing another high-scoring matchup.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 Total Goals (-125)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
