The Missouri State Bears will host the Sam Houston Bearkats on Tuesday, pitting two struggling Conference USA squads against each other. The Bears are fresh off a wild shootout loss to Delaware, while the Bearkats are still winless versus FBS opponents.
Missouri State is a 5.5-point home favorite on Tuesday with -218 moneyline odds, while Sam Houston has +180 moneyline odds. The game total for the conference showdown is set at 51.5 points. Here is a preview of the Week 9 contest featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Missouri State Bears vs. Sam Houston Bearkats Preview
Missouri State
After losing by 50 to then-No. 8 Texas A&M to open the season, the Bears took care of business against Lindenwood with a 48-14 win. It took them a while longer to beat an FBS opponent, however. Missouri State lost by six at home versus Marshall, kept it within 10 at then-No. 22 SMU, then fell 21 points short at Western Kentucky. The Bears finally came out on top against Kennesaw State thanks to Yousef Obeid’s game-winning field goal as time expired, only to lose 61-38 when they visited Delaware last week.
Former Duke backup Henry Belin IV has stepped in as the Bears’ starting quarterback, taking over for Skyler Locklear midway through the Western Kentucky game. Locklear was completing 65.7% of his attempts with a 135.5 passer rating, while Belin owns a 67.6% completion percentage and a 147.5 passer rating. Excluding his reps from the SMU game, though, Belin is completing 69.0% of passes with a 156.1 passer rating. He also rushed for a touchdown in Week 2 and accumulated 24 yards on the ground in Week 7.
Regardless of who has been under center, Western Kentucky transfer wideout Isaiah Myers has been at the center of the Bears’ passing game. He leads CUSA in receiving yards and touchdowns, totaling 826 yards and eight touchdowns from scrimmage on 38 catches and two carries. Missouri State’s second-leading receiver, Jmariyae Robinson, is only one reception behind at 37, but he is also more than 500 yards behind at 313. On the ground, running back Jambres Dubar has missed two games in a row. While Ramone Green Jr. is the team’s next-leading rusher on the season, Connor Lair leads the Bears’ backfield with 180 yards and two touchdowns from scrimmage over the last two games.
Defensively, Missouri State ranks No. 112 in yards allowed per play, No. 129 in yards allowed per game and No. 130 in points allowed per game. The Bears boast the No. 90 total offense and No. 98 scoring offense, with their 5.8 yards per play ranking No. 74 nationally. Looking at the opponent-adjusted SP+ efficiency rankings, Missouri State ranks No. 114 on offense, No. 128 on defense, No. 131 on special teams and No. 128 overall – a two-spot decline from its placement a week ago.
Sam Houston
The Bearkats only lost by three at Troy and by six versus Tulsa to open 2026, then broke through with a 59-0 win over Nicholls State. But after losing 49-14 to then-No. 11 Texas Tech, Sam Houston failed to get back on track. It lost 35-3 at Liberty, then 16-3 to Western Kentucky and 30-24 to New Mexico State – both at home.
Quarterback Landyn Locke has been the most high-usage passer in CUSA this season, leading the conference with 236 attempts, 147 completions, 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns. But with his five interceptions and 7.0 yards per attempt, his 133.7 passer rating doesn’t stand out much. And in the month of October, Locke has just one touchdown with two interceptions, a 56.0% completion percentage and 100.0 passer rating.
Wideouts Tim Burns Jr., Chris Reed and Grady O’Neill are all between 274 and 329 yards with multiple touchdowns this season. Jerrian Parker has been an effective receiving back as well with 179 of his 260 scrimmage yards coming off catches. The running back trio of Alton McCaskill, MJ Dowdy and Landan Brown – who have each scored one touchdown – are all averaging between 3.8 and 4.0 yards per carry, but none of them are even averaging 32.0 rushing yards per game.
Sam Houston boasts the No. 55 total defense and No. 53 defense on a yards-per-play basis, but the No. 81 scoring defense in the country. It also sacrifices the 10th-most yards per game on penalties. Offensively, the Bearkats rank No. 117 in yards per play, No. 119 in yards per game and No. 123 in points per game, despite their heavy reliance on the passing game. In SP+, Sam Houston comes in at No. 129 overall with the No. 110 defense, No. 113 special teams and No. 132 offense.
Missouri State vs. Sam Houston Pick, Best Bet
The Bears wouldn’t have covered a -5.5-point spread against an FBS opponent this season. The Bearkats would have covered a +5.5-point spread in just one of six tries versus FBS teams, but not at all since Sept. 5. That did come on the road against Troy, though, and the Trojans do rank 20 spots higher than the Bears in the SP+. That suggests that Sam Houston at least has the capability of keeping this within a touchdown, even if it still stays winless against FBS programs in 2026.
For as putrid as the Bearkats’ offense has been this year, the Bears’ defense is hardly much better. Sam Houston just put up 24 points against a New Mexico State defense that is statistically superior to Missouri State’s – even if one touchdown came on a blocked punt. Meanwhile, Missouri State just gave up 61 points to an offense that also favors the pass and is only barely a top-100 unit in its own right.
With both teams bringing so many flaws to the table, it’s hard to pick either one to buck their disappointing trends. Instead, I think the over on 51.5 points is a better play. Sam Houston’s last game made it to 54, while Missouri State’s finished at 99 total points. I think the most likely outcome is something in the range of a 30-27 final score, regardless of who comes out on top.
