Dominant. There’s really no other word for it. The Brewers have looked dominant throughout the postseason, and tonight they have the opportunity to sweep the World Series after sweeping the two-time defending World Series champions in the NLCS.
Will Milwaukee be celebrating it’s first Commissioner’s Trophy on Tuesday night? Or will the Rays stave off elimination and send this series to a Game 5?
Let’s break down Game 4 of the Fall Classic from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $100K Bat Flip [$25K to 1st] (MIL @ TB)
Brewers vs. Rays MLB DFS Showdown Picks
Captain’s Picks
Jake Bauers ($12,300 CP) – The funny thing about the Brewers’ 3-0 series lead is that they’ve accomplished it despite getting almost nothing from NLCS MVP Jake Bauers, who does not have an extra-base hit or an RBI in the World Series. I think that changes on Tuesday. More than anything, this is a bet on Bauers’ campaign as a whole. The 31-year-old was quietly one of the best hitters in the sport throughout the regular season, posting a 94th percentile hard hit rate (51.9%) to go along with a 93rd percentile expected wOBA (.371). Bauers also led Milwaukee in home runs (26), ISO (.218) and wRC+ (143), yet he’s only the team’s fourth-most expensive hitter in Game 4. Add in the presence of the right-handed Griffin Jax ($10,600) and I’m all in on Bauers finally having his moment.
UTIL Plays
Yandy Diaz ($9,400) – Diaz is about the only Rays asset that I feel super comfortable with. If how the Brewers handled Game 4 of the NLCS is any indication, we’ll likely see a mix of relievers this evening, with the left-handed Shane Drohan ($10,400) and the right-handed Dustin May ($10,400) both playing huge roles. That’s all fine and dandy for Diaz, whose OPS in both splits hovered around .800 during the regular season. We’re talking about someone with a 91st percentile expected batting average (.281). Not to mention that Diaz owns the eighth-highest wRC+ in MLB across the past five years (137). Hitting atop Tampa’s lineup, Diaz has an incredible mix of floor and ceiling.
Sal Frelick ($4,800) – Look, I’m not going to sit here and suggest that Frelick was a good hitter this season, but the truth of the matter is that he’s red-hot in the postseason. In 32 plate appearances, the outfielder is slashing .269/.375/.423 with three stolen bases and more walks (4) than strikeouts (3). Specific to the World Series, Frelick is averaging 12.0 FPTS per game. Yet, despite all that, the former 15th-overall pick has the lowest salary in Game 4 of any Milwaukee starter. In another opposite-hand matchup, I’ll keep going back to this inexpensive well.
Aaron Ashby ($4,000) – Using a reliever is always a risky proposition in Showdown, but here’s a couple things to think about with Ashby, who hasn’t pitched since Saturday thanks to the blowout in Game 3. First and foremost, Ashby has appeared in eight of Milwaukee’s 11 postseason games so far. He might currently be Pat Murphy’s most-trusted bullpen asset. Why? Well, the fact that he’s thrown 15.2 scoreless innings in October probably doesn’t hurt. Nor does the 32.1% strikeout rate. Ashby’s handedness is also a massive plus. The Rays can not hit LHPs — just ask Robert Gasser. Tampa’s .116 ISO within the split ranked dead-last in MLB during the regular season.
Fades
Liam Hicks ($7,000) – Hicks has been one of the Rays most important power bats since he was acquired at the trade deadline, but this just feels like a bad spot for the backstop. Not only has Hicks struggled in the postseason to the tune of a .212 average and an 80 wRC+, but this Brewers bullpen game script will likely involve the aforementioned Drohan and Ashby, along with fellow southpaws in JoJo Romero ($4,000) and DL Hall ($4,000). Hicks had been starting against LHPs in the ALCS, but he was benched in Game 3 with Gasser toeing the rubber. It’s not difficult to see how Kevin Cash made that decision, either. In 118 left-on-left plate appearances in the regular season, Hicks mustered a .038 ISO and a 45 wRC+. Woof.
