The Brewers are just one win away from their first title in franchise history. Milwaukee looked the part of a champion on Monday, earning a blowout 10-1 victory in Game 3. On the verge of a sweep, the visitors are sure to come out motivated this evening. The same will likely be true of the Rays, a hard-nosed club hoping to avoid a series defeat at home. Can Tampa Bay save its season tonight at Tropicana Field?
The Brewers are favorites (-125) over the Rays; the over/under is set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s World Series showdown between Milwaukee and Tampa Bay on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Rays pick, best bet today
- Brewers ML (-125): Milwaukee has outclassed Tampa Bay all series, and it’s difficult to see that reversing course tonight. The Brewers will have just about everyone at their disposal, potentially deploying their top arms in high-leverage situations. As for the Rays, Jax’s chase-heavy approach doesn’t inspire confidence against a patient group of hitters.
Brewers vs. Rays prediction, preview
An eight-run, two-out rally in the fifth inning of Game 3 sums up this Brewers offense. Rather than delivering one big blow, this group opts to kill its opponents one hit at a time. During the regular season, they ranked second in runs scored (850), first in batting average (.258) and first in on-base percentage (.341). That’s carried over into the postseason, where Milwaukee has only lost once over 11 contests. Seven different lineup regulars (min. 300 plate appearances) have recorded a wRC+ of 100 or greater. In this series, William Contreras has been the standout. The catcher has recorded two or more hits in all three games, currently slashing .538/.571/.538 at the plate.
It’ll be up to Griffin Jax to set the tone early in this one. Tampa Bay’s hurler has done a stellar job all season. Through 112.1 innings of work, he’s notched a 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 116 strikeouts (9.3 K/9). The reliever turned starter is one of the best at getting batters to reach on pitches, sitting within the 89th percentile in chase rate (35.1%). In comparison, Milwaukee hitters have notched the league’s lowest chase rate (26.9%). Making things even more difficult for Jax, he hasn’t been great during his two October outings. Over six innings pitched this month, the right-hander has allowed four earned runs (6.00 ERA).
On the other side, the Brewers have yet to announce a Game 4 starter as of Tuesday morning. Dustin May, Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan could all open today’s contest for the visitors. Regardless, manager Pat Murphy will have one of the sport’s elite bullpens at his disposal tonight. Milwaukee relievers own a National League-best 1.34 ERA and 0.88 WHIP this postseason. Aaron Ashby has been arguably the best relief arm in baseball over the past month, and should play a role tonight. The 28-year-old comes into tonight’s matchup having tossed 15.2 scoreless innings this postseason. That includes 3.1 frames during the World Series.
Tampa Bay’s lineup has several standouts, including slugger Junior Caminero. However, it’s fair to say this isn’t the most intimidating group at the moment. The offense is averaging just 3.5 runs per game during the playoffs. Even that total is misleading, since shaky Cleveland and New York defense gifted the Rays runs earlier this postseason. To make matters worse, Tampa owns the league’s sixth-lowest OPS against left-handed pitching (.678). Murphy will have the ability to mix and match, choosing when to send southpaws like Ashby and JoJo Romero to the mound. That could keep an already struggling offense on its heels.
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