Since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback for Kansas City, the Chiefs had won the AFC West and posted double-digit wins in seven straight seasons, winning three Super Bowls in five trips. Then last season happened. The Chiefs went 6-8 in Mahomes starts before he got injured.
Changes were needed, and changes were made, primarily by adding Kenneth Walker III, the Super Bowl MVP running back.
Walker has carried the ball 106 times for a league-leading 665 yards and 6.3 yards per carry. He also has the NFL’s longest rush for 76 yards. Did I forget to mention that he’s scored six times on the ground? Kansas City is 25th in passing rate at 53.07%, after ranking in the top 10 in every other season with Mahomes at quarterback.
Defensively, Steve Spagnuolo has been masterful. The passing defense has held opposing quarterbacks to a 60.9% completion percentage and a 74.1 passer rating. The Chiefs have allowed only four passing touchdowns compared to five interceptions. The rush defense has allowed only 3.5 yards per carry, 88.8 yards per game, and three touchdowns. If there’s one blemish, it’s that the pressure rate is only middle of the pack. Kansas City has only recorded eight sacks, tied for the second-fewest, despite blitzing at the eighth-highest rate.
The Seahawks defense has been one of the league’s best. The pressure rate is second-highest despite blitzing at the 12th-lowest rate. The unit has racked up 16 sacks and is tied for the NFL lead with 11 takeaways. The pass defense has held quarterbacks to a 63.3 completion percentage and a 75.2 passer rating. The rush defense has been just as good, limiting running backs to 3.5 yards per carry and 96 yards per game. It has allowed only four rushing touchdowns.
Seattle’s issue has been the offense. The rushing attack has averaged only 3.9 yards per carry and scored only five times. At quarterback, Sam Darnold has thrown seven touchdowns to seven interceptions and twice passed for under 200 yards (not counting his early exit in Week 1). Meanwhile, Drew Lock completed over 70% of his passes with four touchdowns and zero interceptions across a Week 1 relief appearance and a Week 2 start. Things that make you go hmmmm.
Looking at the odds for Sunday Night Football, the Seahawks are 3-point home favorites with -148 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Chiefs are +124 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U 42.5 points.
Below are the values that could help you reach the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (KC @ SEA)
NFL DFS Value Picks for Chiefs vs. Seahawks Week 7
TE Noah Gray, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,000)
Over his last three games, Gray has played over 60% of snaps and caught at least two passes in each contest. Seattle has been one of the best defenses against tight ends, but Gray is cheap, has been involved, and will likely be on the field plenty. You can’t ask for much more at this price point.
RB George Holani, Seattle Seahawks ($4,400)
Zach Charbonnet won’t make his season debut in Week 7, so Holani and Emanuel Wilson should once again handle Seattle’s running back duties. After Wilson was on the positive side of the 60/40 split, things flipped last week, with Holani getting 58% of the snaps to Wilson’s 32%. Wilson and Holani have both been used in the passing game and the red zone, so either could lead. That said, Wilson costs $2,000 more, and Holani could get more targets and red-zone looks.
TE AJ Barner, Seattle Seahawks ($4,600)
Barner has put up double-digit FPTS only once this season. That said, he’s playing over 90% of snaps, has 24 targets, and seven red-zone opportunities this season. He’s also the one to Tush Push for the Seahawks, so he could score a rushing touchdown, something he’s already done once this season. In addition, Kansas City has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends, something Darnold should consider if he moves away from JSN.
