Portland’s new backcourt wasted little time making an impression. Damian Lillard and Ja Morant helped the Trail Blazers absolutely dismantle Phoenix 124-83 on Wednesday, obliterating the Suns and capturing a 30-point lead within the first quarter. Sacramento opened with a 121-96 loss to the Clippers. Now the Kings have to figure out how to slow down Portland in their home opener Friday, Oct. 23, at Golden 1 Center. Tipoff is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET.
The line at DraftKings Sportsbook has Portland favored by 10.5 points at -108, with the Blazers at -470 on the Moneyline and the total at 231.5. That’s a sizable number for a road favorite this early, but Sacramento’s defensive problems, even on paper, give Portland a clear path to another win. Malik Monk is probable, giving the Kings some needed backcourt help.
Let’s break down this matchup.
Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings preview, prediction
Portland has more offensive options than it did during last season’s 42-40 campaign. Lillard scored 25 points in his return, Morant contributed 14 points and eight assists, and Deni Avdija added 18 points and 10 rebounds. The encouraging part is how those pieces can complement each other. Morant gives Portland a guard who can pressure the basket, while Lillard can punish defenses that commit too much attention to the ball. While I’m not convinced yet of their long-term partnership – and perhaps I shouldn’t be due to Lillard’s age – it does look promising thus far, even if the backcourt defense is an issue. Avdija also doesn’t have to manufacture as much by himself this season. That should make this group harder to contain than last season’s offense, which ranked 20th in offensive rating.
Sacramento needs more balanced production around Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis. LaVine scored 28 points against the Clippers, but rookie Darius Acuff Jr. went 5-for-24 from the field and Keegan Murray finished 1-for-8. While I wouldn’t expect these two to struggle this much offensively, I do think it’ll be a long season for the Kings if they continue to force the issue with Acuff Jr. Rookie guards typically struggle with efficiency (unless your name is Kon Knueppel), but Acuff Jr. has to find ways to get easier looks, especially if he plays with a playmaker of Sabonis’ caliber. Monk’s expected return should help distribute the offense tonight. Still, fixing the offense is only part of Doug Christie’s assignment. Sacramento finished 22-60 last season and ranked 28th in defensive rating, allowing a putrid 121.5 points per 100 possessions. Wednesday’s performance offered little reassurance that those issues have disappeared. With reserve centers Dylan Cardwell and Maxime Raynaud out, the Kings also have fewer frontcourt options available to help protect the rim. And thus the conundrum of Sabonis resurfaces: he’s nice to have on offense, but heavy to carry on the other side of the ball.
Trail Blazers at Kings pick, best bet
The paint is where I expect Portland to create separation tonight. Sacramento allowed the Clippers to shoot 28-for-41 there on Wednesday, including an unacceptable 16-for-19 in the restricted area, leading to 56 paint points for the Clips without a single recorded block by the Kings. Now this game doesn’t establish any sort of trend, per se, but it’s a worrisome start for the Sacramento defense.
Morant and Avdija will poke at that interior coverage repeatedly. If Sacramento’s perimeter defenders get beaten, Sabonis has to balance stopping the ball with protecting against a pass to Donovan Clingan. Bringing another defender into the lane creates a different problem: Portland can move the ball back outside and make the Kings recover. It could easily be a nightmare situation for the Kings’ big men tonight. Lillard’s presence will make those decisions more difficult. I’m not expecting another six triples, but Sacramento still has to respect his range that ranks among the best in the league, even at his age.
The rotation also matters when laying this many points. Micah Nori plans to use 10 players, with Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, and Robert Williams III among the reserves. Even with Shaedon Sharpe out, Portland has experienced options beyond its starting five. Holiday’s availability off the bench should be particularly useful, and annoying, against a Sacramento backcourt working through Acuff’s adjustment to NBA defenses.
I trust Portland’s ability to generate good looks more than Sacramento’s ability to tighten up its defense. The Blazers can attack through multiple creators, and their bench gives them a chance to maintain that pressure.
