There’s another hot serving of NBA action on tonight’s plate with several high-profile matchups. Division rivals square off in a Texas-sized showdown between Texas-sized stars, with Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs taking on Kevin Durant and the Rockets at the Moody Center in Austin. These are two contending rosters with a ton of talent, so this should be a fantastic contest, to say the least.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Friday’s Spurs vs. Rockets matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rockets vs. Spurs prediction, preview
Whew, did it look like the Rockets were back in their season-opening win. Houston didn’t have Fred VanVleet for the entirety of last season and missed Steven Adams for much of the campaign, but the pair are both back in the mix moving forward – though the latter is questionable tonight alongside Reed Sheppard. VanVleet tossed 11 assists in Tuesday’s 128-110 win over the Mavericks, showing exactly the kind of playmaking in the halfcourt that this team lacked last season. Kevin Durant appeared ageless with 30 points on 10-for-16 shooting, but it was his understudy Jabari Smith Jr. who also stood out with 30 points of his own on an 11-for-17 line. The latter probably won’t do that on a nightly basis, but even a moderate step forward as a scorer from him would prove massive for the Rockets’ outlook. Of course, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson also posted double-doubles in points and rebounds, so there’s a ton of star power in this starting five. Will Houston shoot 44.4% from deep every game? Absolutely not, but the offense appeared much more stable than last year and dominated the glass with 17 offensive rebounds, plus the defense played a great first half and will obviously remain one of the NBA’s better units.
The Spurs weren’t as successful in their first outing, but they also faced much stiffer competition. They faced off against the Thunder and eventually lost 116-104 in what can only be described as an ugly showing. San Antonio shot 38.7% as a team and only 27.0% from deep, which ultimately was the difference given that the team was competitive on the glass and in the turnover battle. The big story was an underwhelming season debut from Victor Wembanyama, who produced only 12 points while shooting an abysmal 1-for-13 from the field. Unfortunately, the lack of scoring is what made headlines rather than his six blocks and 13 rebounds, but such is the nature of the beast. A repeat of such a poor outing in the scoring column is highly unlikely after he averaged at least 24 PPG over the last two seasons, so there’s not reason to panic about the one-off performance. Stephon Castle led the Spurs with 24 points in the opener, but the three-guard lineup of he, De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper wasn’t particularly productive despite the latter two combining for 32 points and 12 dimes, so that three-man pairing may need time to work out some kinks. Fox is actually questionable tonight with a wrist sprain, so he may not play alongside Keldon Johnson, who’s also questionable with a mouth laceration. Beyond those two, San Antonio will continue to wait for offseason acquisition Tobias Harris to make his debut since he’s still out with a calf strain, too.
Rockets vs. Spurs pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Spurs as a 4.5-point favorite tonight with -192 odds on the Moneyline. The Rockets are a +160 underdog to win outright with the total set at 224.5 combined points.
This should be an excellent matchup that’s pretty close for the most part. Wembanyama will assuredly bounce back after averaging 23.3 PPG against the Rockets last year, though he shot just 11.8% from deep against their defense and may not connect from distance tonight. This game is seemingly priced as though Fox will play, but even if he doesn’t it’s not the worst thing in the world since Castle and Harper may be able to coexist with fewer growing pains in a guard-heavy lineup. Generally speaking, San Antonio brings one of the deepest rotations in the league, anyways. This was a group with strong two-way play last season en route to an NBA Finals appearance, and once fully healthy, they’ll be a real force.
The status of Fox and Johnson does leave something up in the air, though. While Houston may not have Adams or Sheppard, the Rockets have a ton of talent of their own. Sengun doesn’t seem overly bothered by Wembanyama in the paint based on past matchups, and between Durant, Thompson, Smith and VanVleet, there’s a smattering of other scorers anyways. The latter’s presence is particularly important in getting this group through periods of bogged-down offense in the halfcourt, so it’s truly tough to oversell the kind of impact he has on the floor. In 2024-25, the Rockets were 3.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court than when he sat. This is also a neutral-site game at the Moody Center in Austin rather than a home game for the Spurs, so that does factor in as well. And while a very minor note, Durant does get to play in a city he seems to still hold dear after his time at the University of Texas so long ago – he never played at this venue in college, but this is something of a homecoming for him.
With all that in mind, I expect this to be a very competitive affair that goes down to the wire, but I’d rather get the plus value on the visitors than ride the favorites outright.
