Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer threw three interceptions against Kentucky and squandered another afternoon his defense had made winnable. Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor remains questionable with a foot injury after missing the loss at LSU. They meet Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Oklahoma Sooners.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma prediction, preview
Mateer’s blockers remain horribly unsettled. Left tackle Ryan Fodje is out after replacing injured starting tackle Michael Fasusi, who remains questionable. Guard Eddy Pierre-Louis is out, too, while fellow interior lineman Heath Ozaeta is questionable. Right tackle E’Marion Harris could have to move left, with guard Peyton Joseph shifting to tackle after his first career start last week. Oklahoma has averaged only 2.8 yards per rush through six games. Running back Lloyd Avant managed 31 yards on eight attempts against Kentucky, leaving Mateer to recover too many possessions through his arm.
He did lead a 90-yard touchdown drive, finding tight end Rocky Beers for the score. Receiver Manny Choice caught five passes for 98 yards, joining wideout Isaiah Sategna III as a target capable of getting Oklahoma downfield. Mississippi State allowed LSU to complete 31 of 38 throws for 289 yards. Mateer should find catches against this defense if his patched-up line gives him time.
Oklahoma has recently wasted plenty of those catches. Against Kentucky, the Sooners settled for field goals after two substantial marches and threw an interception after gaining 47 yards on another possession. Mississippi State has allowed just 3.5 yards per rush this season. Avant should meet more resistance, leaving Mateer to extend those drives and finish them through his receivers.
Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State pick, best bet
Taylor has done more in practice this week, encouraging optimism about a return. Against Missouri, he threw for 360 yards, finding receiver Anthony Evans III eight times for 114. A normal, mobile Taylor gives the Bulldogs a much greater chance of stretching Oklahoma downfield. Running back Fluff Bothwell and guard DJ Chester remain questionable. Coach Jeff Lebby could get Taylor back and still have to work around an injured supporting cast.
Backup quarterback Parker Puckett completed 16 of 26 throws for just 121 yards at LSU. He ran for 40, helping Mississippi State reach useful territory, but the Bulldogs failed all five fourth-down attempts. Lebby found ways to move; his offense could not finish. Oklahoma just held Kentucky to 230 total yards and has allowed only 20 conversions on 78 third downs this season. Puckett would face another defense capable of making him complete difficult throws after the early gains disappear.
Taylor is closer to returning, and I expect Mississippi State to throw better than Puckett managed at LSU. He still has to move normally: against Alabama, Taylor threw three touchdowns and two interceptions while Mississippi State rushed for just 18 net yards. Oklahoma’s damaged line leaves Mateer struggling to finish his own possessions, though, against a front that should contest Avant. I prefer under 46.5, allowing Taylor’s improved availability to bring the Bulldogs closer in a narrow Oklahoma win.
Best bet: Under 46.5 (-112).
Projected score: Oklahoma 23, Mississippi State 20.
Best Bet: Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma u46.5 total points scored (-110)
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