It’s going down at 155 pounds on Saturday night as veteran Grant Dawson faces undefeated prospect Nurullo Aliev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev in Abu Dhabi.
Dawson (24–3–1, 12–2–1 UFC) has won four of his last five fights, most recently securing a third-round submission victory against Mateusz Rebecki at UFC 328 in May. Aliev (12–0, 4–0 UFC) is coming off a lopsided decision win over Mike Davis in July.
Dawson enters as a slight -118 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Aliev is a near pick’em at -102, with the fight total set at O/U 2.5 rounds.
Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev Fight Preview
Grant Dawson
- 24–3–1 (12–2–1 UFC)
- 5–3 (T)KO
- 14–0 SUB
Grant Dawson has quietly been one of the better fringe top-15 lightweights for a while. The 32-year-old from Nebraska has consistently stayed in the mix behind an excellent jiu-jitsu game, which he reinforced with a bounce-back submission win over Mateusz Rebecki earlier this year. That said, “KGD” is extremely hittable and chinny, and all three of his professional losses have come by knockout or TKO. But on Saturday, he’ll face a rising prospect who hasn’t shown any finishing upside since joining the promotion.
Nurullo Aliev
- 12–0 (4–0 UFC)
- 2–0 (T)KO
- 0–0 SUB
Nurullo Aliev is coming off his most dominant performance yet, ragdolling Mike Davis for 15 straight minutes and earning a clean sweep of the judges’ scorecards. With the performance, “The Tajik Eagle” reiterated that his formidable ground game could become a legitimate problem for the rest of the division. However, Aliev’s lack of stoppage ability remains an issue as he continues to climb the lightweight ladder. The 25-year-old prospect heads into Saturday night facing a notable step up in competition: a seasoned veteran who’s dangerous on the ground and has only ever wilted against powerful strikers.
Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev Pick, Best Bet
In a borderline toss-up, Grant Dawson seems like the better value play at UFC 333. With more experience and a threatening submission arsenal, he should hold his own on the ground and force Nurullo Aliev to be careful. Given his opponent’s lack of finishing upside, Dawson should be able to push the pace and control the fight. He might not get the finish, but he should do enough to get his hand raised.
