Picks, Best Bets for UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

One of the most anticipated UFC events of 2026, UFC 333 is one day away! Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski defends the UFC Featherweight Championship against Movsar Evloev in the Main Event. In the second title fight, Petr Yan puts his title on the line against former 135-pound king Merab Dvalishvili in their third matchup. 

Check out my best bets and full breakdown below ahead of Saturday’s UFC 333 event.

Best Bets for UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

• Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline (-110): Although Evloev’s ground game is elite, Volkanovski rarely gets controlled on the mat for long. Volkanovski’s elite striking puts him on another level, and I believe he will once again prove that father time hasn’t caught up to him yet. 
• Merab Dvalishvili Moneyline (+114): With 10 months to prepare, a dangerous version of “The Machine” is likely to appear at UFC 333 against Petr Yan. I expect Dvalishvili to use his relentless pace to break Yan down.
• Aaron Pico to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-130): Aaron Pico and Losene Keita are both talented fighters on the rise, but Pico’s versatility gives him the advantage in this bout. 12 of Pico’s 14 career wins have come by knockout or decision.

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev Best Bets Breakdown

Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline (-110)

Alexander Volkanovski continues his legendary UFC run on Saturday, making his 12th straight appearance in a title fight as he looks for his seventh successful defense in his career. Over the last 18 months, Volkanovski has turned back the clock, beating Diego Lopes twice en route to becoming champion once again. Volkanovski has a hungry, motivated challenger in Movsar Evloev, who is undefeated at 20-0. Evloev won his last fight against Lerone Murphy in March, solidifying himself as the next title challenger at 145 pounds. 

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Evloev and Volkanovski are both -110 to win. In this contest, Evloev has a one-inch edge in height (5’7″ vs. 5’6″) and standing reach (72″ vs. 71″). Volkanovski is an excellent striker and has an edge in significant strikes per minute (5.99 vs. 3.91) and striking accuracy (57% vs. 47%). Meanwhile, on the ground, the opposite is true: Evloev averages 3.15 more takedowns per 15 minutes at an 18 percent higher rate than Volkanovski. But Volkanovski does have a 68 percent takedown defense. The champion has done a great job of not allowing opponents to take him down often, and even when they do, he finds a way back to his feet quickly. Through 18 UFC fights, only two opponents have recorded at least three takedowns against Volkanovski.

During Volkanovski’s illustrious UFC career, he has made elite fighters look average many times. Yes, Evloev’s striking has improved recently, but it still isn’t near Volkanovski’s level. During Volkanovski’s dominant run, he separated himself from the competition with tremendous pace, high output, and accuracy on the feet. Even though Volk is 38, I foresee another vintage performance at UFC 333 from arguably the greatest Featherweight Champion of all time. 

Merab Dvalishvili Moneyline (+114)

A little over 10 months since their second fight, Petr Yan will defend the UFC Bantamweight title against familiar foe Merab Dvalishvili in the co-main event of UFC 333. At UFC 323 in December 2025, Yan beat Dvalishvili by unanimous decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46). In defeat, although it wasn’t his best performance, Dvalishvili still had a good showing in his previous bout. Dvalishvili landed more total strikes (196 vs. 159) and had more control time (5:12 vs. 2:55), while Yan had the edge in significant strikes (139 vs. 134) and takedowns (5 vs. 2). 

Dvalishvili beat Yan in their first fight in March 2023. In that bout, Dvalishvili landed 202 total strikes, 147 significant strikes, and 11 takedowns, with 6:53 of control time, and won 50-45 on all three judges’ scorecards. Even though Dvalishvili is coming off a loss, he was on one of the most dominant runs in UFC Bantamweight division history before that. Dvalishvili won 14 consecutive fights from September 2018 to October 2025, including four title wins in that span.

Yan is slightly taller (5’7″ vs. 5’6″) while Dvalishvili possesses a one-inch advantage in standing reach (68″ vs. 67″). Dvalishvili’s last performance was abnormal for him, as he landed his fewest takedowns since August 2022. After three successful title defenses in 2025, Dvalishvili faced Yan for his fourth fight of the year. Now, Dvalishvili has had much more time to prepare, and ample rest to enter this fight better prepared. Yan is a supremely talented fighter who is dangerous on the feet and on the ground. But when Dvalishvili is at his best, his quickness and aggressiveness become major difference makers. I’m backing “The Machine” as a +114 underdog to regain the title at UFC 333. 

Aaron Pico to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-130)

An exciting Featherweight fight between Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita opens up the UFC 333 Main Card! Pico is currently ranked No. 11 in the UFC’s Featherweight division and is coming off a win against former Bellator Champion Patricio Pitbull at UFC 327 in April. His opponent, Keita, is a former Oktagon Champion and is coming off a tremendous first-round knockout over Muhammad Naimov in September. Keita has a 17-2 record with 11 knockouts and showed top-tier power in his last fight. 

Although Pico is also a phenomenal striker, he also excels on the ground. Across two UFC fights, Pico averages 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes and 6.16 significant strikes per minute. Pico has landed eight takedowns in his previous two bouts and could use his ground advantage to break down Keita. 

On paper, Keita has the physical advantage: he is taller (5’9″ vs. 5’8″) and has a two-inch reach advantage (72″ vs. 70″). Keita will likely be super aggressive, as he was in his previous bout. If so, Pico must stay calm and patient, waiting for the right moments to close the distance on the feet while also landing takedowns. Pico’s last six wins have come by knockout or decision. You can get Pico to beat Keita by KO/TKO/DQ or decision at -130. 12 of Pico’s 14 career victories have come by knockout or decision. I can see Pico dominating Keita over three rounds or scoring a late knockout. 

Stats provided by UFC Stats.