A Big Ten battle is on tap this afternoon in Evanston. Rutgers (2-4, 1-2) has had a disappointing season, but still has a path towards bowl eligibility. It’s been a terrific campaign from #24 Northwestern (5-1, 2-1), looking the part of a dark horse postseason contender. Can the Wildcats bolster their playoff push with another win on Saturday?
The Wildcats are listed as 16.5-point favorites over the Scarlet Knights, with the total set at O/U 58.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Rutgers vs. Northwestern Week 8 matchup.
Rutgers vs. Northwestern prediction, preview
A season-opening defeat to UMass, at home no less, has set the tone for a disappointing Rutgers campaign. Granted, Greg Schiano’s crew remains fairly respectable on offense. They’re scoring 31.2 points and averaging 403.3 yards per game, both marks good enough for tenth in the conference. The run game hasn’t been particularly effective, averaging just under 3.80 yards per rush attempt. However, the Scarlet Knights are gaining an impressive 8.8 yards per pass attempt. When healthy, quarterback Dylan Lonergan has been effective. Through five games, he’s thrown for 1,066 yards and ten touchdowns. However, he also leads the Big Ten with six interceptions.
Northwestern’s specialty on defense is its secondary. The team’s defensive backs are allowing just 6.2 yards per pass attempt, sixth-best in the conference. To boot, they’ve managed to snag six interceptions in six games. Only one team, #6 Indiana, has racked up more than 21 points against Northwestern’s defense this season. The Wildcats have held Power Four foes Colorado and Penn State to a combined 20 points during two games at home. If there’s a weakness for this crew, it’s on the ground. Opponents are gaining 4.27 yards per rush attempt, fourth-highest in the Big Ten.
On the other side, the Wildcats will look to dominate the clock and grind their way to a sixth win. Quarterback Aidan Chiles has been a stabilizing force in the pocket. Through six games, the Michigan State transfer has recorded 1,398 yards, nine touchdowns and a conference-best 70.5% completion percentage. Just as important, he has yet to throw an interception. Elsewhere, backfield duo Caleb Komolafe and Joseph Himon II have combined for 951 yards from scrimmage and ten touchdowns. Wideout Griffin Wilde has formed an instant connection with Chiles, notching a team-leading 482 receiving yards.
Komolafe and Himon II should be licking their chops coming into Thursday’s matchup. Rutgers has been a mess inside the trenches, surrendering a Big Ten-worst 5.61 yards per rush attempt. It’s not as if things have been much better through the air, either. Teams are averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt and have posted 12 passing touchdowns against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is also last in the conference with a -0.83 turnover margin. In comparison, Northwestern ranks second-best in that category (+1.17). It’s not as if the visitors generate much pressure either, securing just 7.0 sacks over their first six contests.
Best Bet: Northwestern -16.5 (-112)
If not for an even worse Maryland squad, Rutgers would be winless in conference play. That doesn’t bode well going into a road matchup with one of the Big Ten’s best. Northwestern doesn’t beat itself, avoiding sloppy turnovers all season. That’s the best way for a home favorite to prevent a massive upset. Even at this hefty line, expect the Wildcats to cover on Saturday afternoon.
