When he was carted off the field in the Chicago Bears’ Week 2 defeat against the Minnesota Vikings, Caleb Williams (and the legion of Bears fans watching at home and in the stadium) had reason to fear that his third NFL season might’ve come to a premature end. However, the prognosis was good; Williams was ultimately diagnosed with a Grade 2 hamstring tear, missing three games before making his return in Week 6 against the Atlanta Falcons.
Now that he’s back to full health, he should retain his must-start fantasy football status, especially as the Bears’ offense overall continues to click. While Williams’ injury likely ended any realistic chances he may have had at claiming his first MVP, he could still make some realistic strides towards establishing himself as one of the league’s true elites.
Williams’ fantasy managers remained patient throughout his absence, as he’s still rostered in 95% of Yahoo Sports leagues and started in 56% of them. He should remain one of the league’s best fantasy assets, rewarding those who continue to put faith in him despite his injury.
Results and Usage
Williams and Chicago’s offense took the league by storm in Week 1, putting up 59 points against the Carolina Panthers. In that game, Williams completed 21 of his 29 passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns while adding an additional 65 yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries on the ground (37.3 FPTS). Then, after a poor performance in sloppy weather against the Vikings in which he was injured in the fourth quarter, Williams returned in Week 6 to go 30-for-36 (83.3%) for 305 yards and one touchdown (19.5 FPTS). Although he only ran four times for three yards, he demonstrated plenty of mobility outside the pocket, delivering accurate throws while rolling to both his right and his left.
For the season, Williams leads the NFL in completion percentage, and after finishing second-to-last last season in completion percentage over expectation in 2025, he ranks third in that stat so far in 2026. In fairness, he has operated a pretty conservative offense, averaging the fourth-fewest air yards per passing attempt among qualified signal-callers, but he’s made bad throws at the second-lowest rate and been on-target at the sixth-highest rate. He does rank just 23rd among 38 qualified passers by Pro Football Focus’ standards, but PFF still recognizes his strengths.
Future Outlook
As long as Williams remains healthy, he should continue putting up big numbers, regardless of his opponent. Ben Johnson has consistently been among the best offensive minds in the league, as the Bears managed the ninth-most points and sixth-most yards in the league last season en route to a shocking division title. Chicago has dealt with two high-profile injuries this season, as Williams missed three games and running back Kyle Monangai is set to miss his third straight on Thursday as he continues to recover from thumb and toe injuries, but it managed to find some success with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent under center regardless.
If anything, Monangai’s absence could help Williams put up numbers. The Bears operate a run-centered offense overall, leading the league in rushing attempts, but after averaging 196.3 rushing yards per game and 232.8 passing yards per game across the first four games of the season with Monangai active, they’ve averaged 89.5 rushing yards and 307.0 passing yards per game in the two games that he’s missed. D’Andre Swift simply hasn’t been as efficient as Monangai, averaging 1.2 fewer yards per carry and a success rate 4.9 percentage points lower, and Johnson has largely turned away from the run as a result. After calling more runs than passes in three of the first four games of the season, he has called more passes in each of the last two games.
To be fair, Williams has a pretty difficult matchup on Thursday night in the New England Patriots, who have given up the sixth-fewest FPTS per game to opposing quarterbacks, but he had his fair share of solid performances last season against similarly strong opponents. While the Patriots have been stout overall, they’ve been much more gettable on a per-play basis, allowing the 16th-most yards per attempt and the 16th-highest passer rating. Plus, cornerback Carlton Davis III has been ruled out, and former All-Pro safety Kevin Byard is questionable. The Patriots’ offense, which has been clicking as of late, is strong enough to force Williams to keep throwing.
