Entering the season, the San Francisco 49ers had a ton of question marks. Was Mike Evans washed? Would Christian McCaffrey break down after the massive workload last season? Could George Kittle return from Achilles surgery? How would the loss of Ricky Pearsall affect the offense? What about a defense that couldn’t get pressure?
Well, check, check, check and check mate. San Francisco has been one of the best teams on both sides of the ball and is one of three teams still undefeated.
Brock Purdy has been more than relevant and is currently second in regular season MVP odds on DraftKings Sportsbook at +275. Despite attempting the fifth-fewest passes, the 13 touchdowns are second-most. Purdy is third in completion percentage (69%) but it’s not been all dink-and-dunk, as the 8.4 yards per attempt are second-most. He’s only thrown two interceptions while being sacked only three times, the fewest in the NFL. The 119.3 passer rating is tops and the 41.6% first down rate is numero uno.
Mike Evans has caught 24 of 34 targets for 326 yards and three touchdowns. Deebo Samuel has racked up 206 yards and three touchdowns while George Kittle has hauled in 21 of 28 targets for 268 yards and four touchdowns. While the volume is down for Christian McCaffrey, he’s still contributed 286 rushing yards and five touchdowns while catching 19 of 25 targets for 137 yards.
The offensive line is ranked second per PFF.
Defensively, the unit is sixth in pressure rate and racked up 11 sacks. The seven turnovers are tied for the fifth-most. Only five passing touchdowns have been allowed while the 83.4 passer rating is the eighth-lowest. The rush defense has been one of the best, as the 17.91 expected points are the third-lowest. The unit is limiting opposing backfields to 3.7 yards per carry and 97.6 yards per game. Only three rushing touchdowns have been allowed.
As good as San Francisco has been, Washington has been equally bad. Quarterback Jayden Daniels only starting three games is a big reason why, but the Commanders have serious foundation issues on both sides of the ball, which has led to a 1-3-1 record. The one similarity? Both the 49ers and Commanders have beaten the defending champion Seattle Seahawks. Football.
The offensive line is ranked 19th per PFF, but the interior has been better recently.
Daniels hasn’t thrown an interception yet, but he only has three passing touchdowns and is completing 60.5% of his passes. The yards per attempt are only 6.0. The team rushing stats look good at 698 yards and 4.7 yards per carry, but much of that is due to Daniels rushing 21 times for 203 yards. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has rushed 67 times for 239 yards, good for only 3.6 yards per carry.
Four players have caught at least 10 passes, with each scoring at least one touchdown, but none of those have eclipsed 20 receptions.
Defensively, the unit blitzes at the second-highest rate and is ninth in pressure rate, but only nine sacks have been racked up, the fifth-fewest. The -35.9 expected points from the pass defense are the ninth-worst while the 103.9 passer rating allowed is the seventh-highest. The 14 passing touchdowns allowed are tied for the most. On the ground, the 4.76 expected points are middle-of-the-pack and the unit has allowed 3.9 yards per carry and 95.4 yards per game. Only three rushing touchdowns have been allowed.
Why bang against a brick wall when one can trebuchet over the defense for fantasy goodies?
DraftKings Sportsbook has SF -7.5 over WAS with the total at an opulent 52.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (WAS @ SF)
Commanders vs. 49ers DraftKings Showdown Captain’s Picks
Brock Purdy ($16,200 CP): As mentioned in the opening, the path of least resistance is through the air against the Commanders defense, especially since the unit blitzes so much, which could leave plenty of opportunities for big plays. Volume will likely be a concern, since Purdy has attempted at least 30 passes only twice this season, but he’s been uber-efficient, throwing at least two touchdowns in every game and 13 on the season. Purdy also has some rushing equity, as he’s rushed for at least 29 yards in four of five games with a touchdown. Purdy has put up at least 22 FPTS in three of five contests with a high of 31.3 FPTS.
Best UTIL Plays for Commanders vs. 49ers
Brandin Cooks ($4,000): Last week, Cooks played 40% of the snaps after Deebo Samuel succumbed to injury. Cooks caught one of two targets for seven yards and a touchdown. Samuel is out for this one so Cooks could see an increase in playing time.
George Kittle ($8,200): Kittle has looked amazing, especially considering he tore his Achilles last season. He has four touchdowns on the season and put up at least 17 FPTS in three contests, with a high of 26.2 FPTS. With Samuel out and the Commanders being blitz happy, Kittle could see an increase in targets and should get plenty of one-on-one opportunities. Washington has allowed the second-most FPTS to tight ends so far this season.
Jayden Daniels ($10,000): If the Commanders are going to do anything on offense, Daniels will more than likely have a hand. Last week, he went 17-of-25 for 199 yards while rushing nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns, good for 35.3 FPTS. It’s that dual-threat ability that makes us fantasy nerds giddy inside.
Commanders vs. 49ers DFS Fades
Christian McCaffrey ($11,800): McCaffrey is going to get his, but will he put up enough points to justify his elevated salary? I have my doubts. San Francisco is limiting the workload for McCaffrey a bit, since he’s 30 years old and racked up a ton of touches last season. With Purdy playing good football and the team undefeated, having McCaffrey fresh for the playoffs is paramount. McCaffrey has not rushed more than 15 times or received more than five targets in any game this season.
Commanders vs. 49ers Showdown Game Script
Anything can happen in a Monday Night Football game, but the 49ers have too much talent and are too well-coached to lay an egg at home in primetime.
Final Score: 49ers 30, Commanders 20
