Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys prediction, pick for NFL Week 6 on Sunday 10/18/26

Green Bay has slashed the pressure on Jordan Love from 44.7% of dropbacks over the first three games to 20.3% over the last two. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden each cleared 120 receiving yards against Chicago; Love finally had time to find them downfield. Dallas arrives at Lambeau on Sunday with ten days between games and a healthier offense. The Cowboys’ defensive repairs have gone considerably less well. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Packers vs. Cowboys prediction, preview

Matt LaFleur can torment that defense with extra tight ends. Over the past two games, Love has completed 23 of 27 passes for 386 yards from multiple-tight-end formations; Dallas has answered those groupings with base personnel on 84% of snaps. Tucker Kraft’s receiving ability makes the heavier formation particularly unpleasant to defend. Bring linebackers forward against the run, and LaFleur can call play-action behind them. Linebacker DeMarvion Overshown remains out with a hamstring injury; Dallas again must entrust those decisions to his replacements.

Green Bay still needs someone to run competently. Through five games, their miserable 3.05 yards per carry and league-worst minus-0.306 rushing EPA/play have repeatedly stranded Love in passing situations. MarShawn Lloyd did bowl over Jaylon Johnson for a touchdown against Chicago, but his season average remains 2.8 yards. Dallas has conceded 6.03 yards per carry against zone runs; even modest improvement would spare Love some of the third downs Green Bay has converted just 16 times in 58 attempts. The Cowboys have surrendered 30 conversions on 57.

Dak Prescott has CeeDee Lamb without a game designation, alongside cleared linemen Tyler Guyton and Tyler Smith. That extra recovery time matters against a defense whose interior has lost Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Ford to injured reserve. Brian Schottenheimer can send Javonte Williams through those replacements, then exploit Green Bay’s preference for two deep safeties. Lamb has produced 3.18 yards per route run against those coverages across 111 routes; George Pickens has exceeded 75 receiving yards in three consecutive games. Prescott has converted only 8.1% of pressures into sacks, second-lowest among qualifying quarterbacks. Even when rushers arrive, he seldom lets them bury the possession.

Cowboys vs. Packers pick, best bet

Green Bay’s five takeaways against Chicago included real deception: Xavier McKinney rotated underneath throws, and simulated pressure hurried a disastrous protection adjustment. Prescott cannot casually challenge those closing windows. Dallas has more receiving talent to punish a mistimed rotation, particularly with cornerback Benjamin St-Juste now out.

The wind and Trey Smack restrain my enthusiasm. Forecast gusts around 20 mph could interfere with deep throws; Smack missed an extra point and field goals from 43 and 47 yards last week. Those wasted opportunities matter at 53.5. Lamb can repeatedly move Dallas against those two-high coverages, while Love has the personnel advantage to attack farther downfield. I’ll take the over, with 53.5 my ceiling.

Best bet: Over 53.5 points (-112).

Projected score: Packers 31, Cowboys 27.

Best Bet: Packers vs. Cowboys o53.5 total points scored (-110)