The Sunday Slip: NFL best bets, picks, predictions for 10/18/26

Below is my full betting slip for today’s loaded Week 6 NFL slate, with some notes on what I’d risk, some quick analyses—I have full previews of all of most of these already published, if you’re interested in more in-depth analysis. This is both a comprehensive round-up and an at-a-glance preview. Why just be one thing when you can be both? ¿Por qué no los dos? Feel?

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Dan Johnson’s full Week 6 NFL betslip

1:00 p.m.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Best bet: Falcons +1.5 (-118) | Stake: 1u

Chicago’s 96 rushing yards allowed per game conceal 4.4 YPC and the league’s fourth-fewest attempts faced. Bijan Robinson, averaging 5.69 YPC, can slash through that front. Atlanta’s line has held pressure to an NFL-low 21.9% of dropbacks.

With Montez Sweat suspended and Dayo Odeyingbo out, Michael Penix should have time to drive throws behind safeties leaning toward Bijan. Caleb Williams is expected to start, though the hamstring could blunt the cuts that turn busted protection into first downs.

Projected score: Falcons 30, Bears 27.

Player prop: Drake London longest reception over 29.5 yards (-107).

London leads the NFL with 5.31 yards per route against single-high. Chicago uses it 60.7% of the time and is tied for the most 40-yard catches allowed. Penix can hold that safety with a fake to Bijan, then throw over him.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Best bet: Ravens -3 (-118) | Stake: 1u

With Lamar Jackson out, Baltimore can hammer a front yielding 4.77 YPC to opposing backs. Derrick Henry has succeeded on 55.8% of his runs, giving Tyler Huntley manageable downs after his 24-of-32, two-touchdown start last week.

Cleveland keeps backing Deshaun Watson into worse ones: he has taken sacks on 25.3% of his pressures, 19 in all. Baltimore can feed Henry while Cleveland asks Watson to throw them out of those holes. Denzel Boston can strike downfield. At -3, I’ll back Henry to sustain more drives than Watson rescues from behind the sticks.

Projected score: Ravens 24, Browns 17.

Player prop: Derrick Henry 22+ rushing attempts (+103).

Baltimore has fed Henry 113 carries, including 22+ in four of five games and 24 in Huntley’s start. The Ravens have already shown how heavily they’ll lean on him with the backup quarterback.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Best bet: Under 44.5 (-108) | Stake: 1u

Cam Ward averages 5.78 YPA and Daniel Jones 5.80. Ward ranks 34th of 36 quarterbacks in EPA/dropback (-0.186); Jones ranks 34th in completion percentage over expectation (-4.2).

Jonathan Taylor, generating just 1.67 yards after contact per carry (36th among backs), runs into a Tennessee front allowing the sixth-fewest adjusted yards before contact (1.59). Jones may have to throw Indianapolis out of the holes Tennessee digs on early downs. The Titans can funnel carries to Pollard against the Colts’ dreadful run defense and drain clock while Ward leans on his backfield.

Projected score: Colts 23, Titans 17.

Player prop: Tony Pollard over 53.5 rushing yards (-114).

Pollard has taken 14+ carries in four straight games. Indianapolis ranks last in defensive rushing EPA and 31st in rushing success rate allowed, giving Tennessee reason to feed him again.

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Best bet: Jets +7.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u

New England ranks sixth in pass-defense EPA and 30th against the run. With Breece Hall out, I’d let Braelon Allen pound the weaker half of that defense: the Jets rank eighth in rushing EPA, and Geno Smith can throw from second-and-short.

Drake Maye has scorched man blitzes since 2025 (+0.30 EPA/play), making New York’s 52.4% blitz rate dangerous here. The Jets have raised their Cover 6 usage from 2.3% to 13.9%; they can disguise that shell and make Maye read his way downfield while Allen pounds out first downs.

Projected score: Patriots 24, Jets 20.

Player prop: Braelon Allen anytime touchdown (+125).

Allen churned out 102 of his 116 rushing yards after contact last week, taking 24 carries to Isaiah Davis’ two. New England has conceded a rushing touchdown to a back in three consecutive games.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

Best bet: Giants +1.5 (-122) | Stake: 1u

Jameis Winston has jolted New York with consecutive three-touchdown starts; New Orleans ranks 26th in defensive dropback EPA (+0.169). The Giants can also punch through a particular weakness up front. They use man/gap blocking on 59.3% of Cam Skattebo’s carries; the Saints yield 4.94 YPC and a 63.3% success rate against those runs.

Skattebo can shoulder more work when Winston’s accuracy wanders (-1.1 completion percentage over expectation, 30th). Shough’s 5.3 adjusted net yards per attempt ranks 25th, hardly enough to scare me off that rushing matchup and a home underdog.

Projected score: Giants 27, Saints 23.

Player prop: Malik Nabers 7+ receptions (+132).

Winston has funneled 27 targets to Nabers in his last two starts. Since entering the league, Nabers has drawn targets on 34% of routes against single-high coverage; New Orleans plays it on 64.2% of snaps.

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

Best bet: Panthers -3 (-112) | Stake: 1u

Carolina comes off its bye averaging 6.1 yards per play, with Bryce Young seventh at +6.3 CPOE. Philadelphia returns from London without Jalen Hurts or Saquon Barkley. Pressure has squeezed Tanner McKee to 4.74 YPA and five sacks on 39 pressured dropbacks within a 96-dropback career sample.

DeVonta Smith is cleared and can stretch the defense outside, though Philadelphia’s depleted backfield may struggle to spare McKee repeated third-and-long. Young can thread throws inside to Jalen Coker against a defense surrendering an NFL-high 93 slot receiving yards per game.

Projected score: Panthers 24, Eagles 17.

Player prop: Chuba Hubbard anytime touchdown (-110).

Hubbard has scored five times in four games and took 71% of Carolina’s carries before the bye. His 16.1% explosive-run rate ranks seventh; he can threaten the end zone from outside goal-to-go.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Best bet: Steelers -2.5 (-115) | Stake: 1u

Jalon Daniels can steal first downs with his legs, but his 3.68 adjusted net yards per attempt ranks 35th of 36 quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers can zip throws to Germie Bernard when Tampa sends extra rushers: the Bucs blitz 41.6% of dropbacks, and Bernard drew 25.8% of Pittsburgh’s targets last week.

DK Metcalf is cleared; Tampa safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is out. A new calf injury could sideline Pat Freiermuth, while Daniels can attack Pittsburgh’s own injured secondary. Below a field goal, I’m backing Rodgers to exploit the space Tampa vacates when they blitz.

Projected score: Steelers 23, Buccaneers 17.

Player prop: Cade Otton under 30.5 receiving yards (-116).

Otton’s first-read share shrank from 23% to 4% across Daniels’ starts, with a 3.5-yard average target depth. Sean Koerner projects a 60% under probability; -116 needs 53.7% to break even.

4:05 p.m.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Best bet: Rams -12.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u

Arizona has surrendered a scandalous 9.1 YPA and TDs on 10.1% of throws, both NFL worsts. They answer multiple tight ends with base on 78% of snaps; Matthew Stafford has punished base for 9.1 YPA, four TDs and no picks. Sean McVay can hold linebackers on the field, then throw past them.

Arizona’s left tackle is out; Brissett has taken seven sacks and thrown four picks in two games. McBride can pare a late deficit underneath with McDuffie and Curl questionable. Blake Grupe replaces Harrison Mevis after Monday’s 50-yard miss and OT block; he finished his five-game 2025 Colts stint 11-for-11 on field goals.

Projected score: Rams 35, Cardinals 20.

Player prop: Davante Adams anytime touchdown (-130).

Adams has two multi-TD games; Arizona yields a TD per game outside. Wingard and Wydett Williams Jr. are out at safety, leaving replacements to shade toward Puka while Adams works a goal-line isolation.

4:25 p.m.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Best bet: Chiefs -7.5 (-108) | Stake: 1u

Justin Herbert has sputtered to 35th of 36 quarterbacks in EPA/dropback (-0.212); now Joe Alt and Kayode Awosika are out. Kansas City allows the fewest adjusted yards before contact per rush (1.23), closing the rushing lanes that might spare Herbert obvious passing downs.

Patrick Mahomes ranks fourth in adjusted net yards per attempt (8.13). Even with Rashee Rice out, he can attack a secondary missing Derwin James and Donte Jackson. Herbert can flick quick throws to the cleared Ladd McConkey, but Kansas City’s rested front should force him into longer passing downs.

Projected score: Chiefs 27, Chargers 13.

Player prop: Kenneth Walker anytime touchdown (-165).

Walker leads qualifying backs in YPC (6.17), EPA/carry (+0.112) and missed tackles forced per carry (0.44). Kansas City has given him 20+ touches every game; protecting a lead should send more handoffs his way.

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

Best bet: Over 53.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u

Buffalo leads the NFL in offensive EPA/play, yards per play (6.7) and explosive-run rate (19%). James Cook can rip through a Raiders front allowing the most adjusted yards before contact per rush (2.99).

Kirk Cousins can hit back: Buffalo ranks 30th in defensive success rate and allows 2.71 points per drive. Against the Cover 3/Cover 4 shells Buffalo uses on 62.5% of snaps, Cousins has averaged 9.10 YPA across 97 dropbacks. If Buffalo holds near the goal line, the Raiders can turn to Matt Gay, who has drilled 11 of 12 field goals with multiple makes in three of five games.

Projected score: Bills 34, Raiders 24.

Player prop: Brock Bowers anytime touchdown (-115).

Cleared of his knee designation, Bowers has roared back with 10+ targets and a TD in all three games. He averages 3.19 yards per route across 58 routes against Buffalo’s favored shells.

8:20 p.m.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Best bet: Over 53.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u

Green Bay’s line has cut pressure from 44.7% of dropbacks in the first three games to 20.3% over the past two. Dallas rushers have finished just 8.3% of their pressures with sacks. Jordan Love can set his feet and launch downfield; Green Bay can also run at a defense yielding 6.03 YPC to zone plays.

CeeDee Lamb is cleared and averages 3.18 yards per route against two-high coverage, which Green Bay uses 62.6% of the time. Dak Prescott can feed Lamb underneath those split safeties, then hand off to Javonte Williams, who gets three carries inside the 10 per game.

Projected score: Packers 31, Cowboys 28.

Player prop: Christian Watson anytime touchdown (+120).

Love throws into the end zone three times per game, second most in the league. Watson has scored in four of five games and averages 2.53 yards per route against Cover 1/Cover 3, Dallas’ two main shells.

Monday, October 19 — 8:15 p.m.

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers

Best bet: 49ers -7.5 (-110) | Stake: 1u

Washington plays two-high on a league-leading 71.4% of snaps, yet allows 2.8 passing touchdowns per game. Brock Purdy has carved up that look for 8.94 YPA across 92 dropbacks and leads the NFL in EPA/dropback (+0.413). Kyle Shanahan can draw linebackers toward McCaffrey and send Kittle behind them.

Deebo Samuel is out and Mike Evans questionable, thinning Purdy’s options. Jayden Daniels can punish a rush that loses contain: he ran for 103 yards with the elbow brace on last week. Purdy should push San Francisco past 30; Washington needs more passing than last week’s 199 yards to keep up.

Projected score: 49ers 31, Commanders 20.

Player prop: George Kittle anytime touchdown (+110).

Kittle averages 3.62 yards per route against two-high across 65 routes, drawing targets on 28% of them. Washington surrenders 74.4 receiving yards per game to tight ends; Purdy can work through Kittle inside.