Josh Allen dragged Buffalo through an overtime thriller at SoFi, rushing for 121 yards while James Cook added 111. The Bills stayed in Southern California to practice rather than flying home between western road games. Sunday’s visit to Allegiant Stadium still arrives on a six-day turnaround, with Las Vegas trying to arrest consecutive losses after their unbeaten start. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Buffalo Bills.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Raiders vs. Bills prediction, preview
Kenneth Walker gashed Las Vegas for 177 rushing yards two games ago. Cook’s sharp cutbacks punish defenders who chase the initial lane too far. Buffalo has gained ten-plus yards on a league-leading 19.0% of carries, while Las Vegas has surrendered the most yards before contact per attempt. Joe Brady can make the Raiders defend Allen’s legs alongside those handoffs; Allen already leads the NFL with eight rushing touchdowns. Edge defenders have to squeeze Cook’s lanes and still tackle a quarterback who can run through an outstretched arm.
Right tackle Spencer Brown carries no game designation after his back injury and should face Maxx Crosby, who has generated 20 pressures in two home games. Brady should call shorter throws for Khalil Shakir when Crosby begins reaching Allen. Shakir has reached at least 80 receiving yards in consecutive games despite drawing only three targets Monday. Running back Ty Johnson also caught four passes for 72 yards Monday and carries no game designation. Those receiving options matter with DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer questionable.
Buffalo has struggled to cover those same areas. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard has been rotating young outside corners and patching the nickel position; his defenders have allowed the NFL’s fifth-highest EPA/dropback through five games. Brock Bowers has topped 85 receiving yards in all three games since returning and cleared his knee designation after full practices Thursday and Friday. Kirk Cousins can feed him through the middle; Bowers has drawn targets on 30% of his routes and leads tight ends with 2.92 YPRR across those three games. Tre Tucker is available outside if Leonhard commits extra coverage inside. Las Vegas has passing answers to Buffalo’s scoring.
Bills vs. Raiders pick, best bet
Ashton Jeanty practiced fully all week, too, although Las Vegas’ ground game has averaged an anemic 3.0 yards per carry. Buffalo has held opponents to 3.9, and Ed Oliver remains questionable with a knee injury. Cousins has averaged 9.9 yards per attempt off play action this season against 6.7 without it; Greg Rousseau and the Bills’ rush can punish him when failed runs produce obvious passing downs. Bowers can still rescue drives near the end zone.
Cook’s fumbling is the most unsettling part of laying points. Buffalo has committed nine giveaways over their last three games, and Las Vegas has already forced 11 fumbles this season. The Raiders can erase the rushing advantage by stealing possessions. Near the goal line, though, Buffalo has finished 15 of 21 visits with touchdowns; Las Vegas has conceded 14 on 18 defensive visits. I’m backing Cook and Allen to carry enough of those possessions all the way home.
Best bet: Bills -5.5 (-110).
Projected score: Bills 34, Raiders 24.
