Prior to the season’s start, this Week 6 clash between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs would’ve had all the makings of an instant classic. Both teams were supposed to be in the playoff hunt while competing for the AFC West title, but it turns out only one of them is to be taken seriously. The Bolts are still winless, but can they snap that streak against Patrick Mahomes?
Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET in Tampa Bay. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Chargers vs. Chiefs in NFL Week 6.
Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction, preview
Everything that could possibly go wrong for the Chargers has taken a turn for the worse. This was supposed to be an even better year than the last two seasons of double-digit wins under Jim Harbaugh, but they’re instead 0-5 as one of three remaining winless teams. The hire of Mike McDaniel to helm the offense simply hasn’t worked out as planned – Los Angeles is 30th in points scored and 32nd in overall EPA/play. The passing game looks entirely hapless with Justin Herbert under center. The quarterback ranks 35th of 36 qualifying players at the position in EPA/dropback while amassing just 937 yards with five touchdowns, seven interceptions and 17 sacks taken. The offensive line isn’t doing him any favors at 28th in pressure rate allowed, but still you’d expect more from an offense with Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and more – it says a lot that Tre Harris leads the team in receiving yards with 225. The run game was supposed to be excellent, but Omarion Hampton is losing snaps to Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal, both of whom seem more appropriately suited to McDaniel’s scheme. Even a defense that ranks top-10 in EPA/play and success rate allowed hasn’t actually held up its end of the bargain, falling 23rd in points allowed to opponents and giving up no fewer than 23 in any given matchup.
The Chiefs are surely enjoying their rivals’ shortcomings. Kansas City is unbeaten at 4-0 and enters off the bye week, so the players should be fairly fresh here. The offense looks like its vintage self with 30+ points in three of those four outings, also sitting fourth in EPA/play with top-seven marks in EPA/dropback, EPA/rush, success rate and explosive play rate. There’s a ton to like about how this unit has performed, but it all starts with Kenneth Walker thanks to his 621 scrimmage yards and six total touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes looks great off the Achilles tear with 1,037 passing yards and nine touchdowns to just two picks, also running for a score as well. Travis Kelce, even at his age, looks like a man rejuvenated with 16 grabs for a team-best 246 yards and two touchdowns, too. He’ll have his number called plenty – Rashee Rice is out this week due to injury and Tyquan Thornton hit IR as well, so receiver is a clear need if Xavier Worthy doesn’t step up in the meantime. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have played quite well. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense continues to work magic, ranking third in points allowed and giving up just 10 in two of their four outings. Kansas City comes in at eighth in EPA/play and ninth in success rate allowed, too.
Chargers vs. Chiefs pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Chiefs as a -7.5 favorite at home with -410 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Chargers hold +320 odds on the Moneyline as the road team with the total set at 41.5 combined points.
Would it be a cruel twist of fate for Los Angeles to recapture the form of the last two seasons and finally show signs of a competent football team again? Yes, and while unlikely, it doesn’t feel impossible. The reason that an upset doesn’t feel entirely unrealistic is due to Kansas City’s lack of pass-catching talent, though that likely means Andy Reid elects to lean more on Walker and Emmett Johnson on the ground. The Chargers are ninth in EPA/rush allowed, for what it’s worth, but stopping Walker outright seems nigh impossible these days. Don’t expect as much from the Chiefs’ offense as usual with Rice and Thornton sidelined. In turn, that does open the door for the Bolts to cover here. A 7.5-point spread is pretty significant, and even with the many glaring issues for this attack, it doesn’t seem totally out of the question for them to sneak in to lose by seven or fewer points. So long as the defense doesn’t totally collapse, a less-impressive outing from the Chiefs may be all it takes for L.A. to cover here. With that said, though, the under may hold more appeal for some bettors here, so just take your pick.
