Michael Penix Jr. gets another chance to finish an afternoon at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. His rib injury ended his night before Baltimore escaped in overtime; he practiced fully this week and carries no game designation. Caleb Williams is expected to start after missing Chicago’s last three games with a hamstring injury, although he still carries a questionable designation. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Chicago Bears.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Falcons vs. Bears prediction, preview
Atlanta coach Kevin Stefanski should make Chicago defend the run early. His line has allowed pressure on just 21.9% of dropbacks through five games, the NFL’s lowest rate, and now faces a front without suspended edge rusher Montez Sweat, injured end Dayo Odeyingbo and linebacker T.J. Edwards. Austin Booker leads the Bears with four sacks, and Grady Jarrett can still disrupt the interior.
Bijan Robinson has already run for a league-leading 580 yards on 102 carries. The acceleration is wonderful; his ability to absorb contact and carry on makes this offense particularly difficult to get off the field. Brian Robinson supplies another physical runner behind a line well suited to Stefanski’s zone schemes. Chicago has held opponents to 96 rushing yards per game, ninth fewest, but Edwards’ absence strips an experienced tackler from a front already replacing both starting ends. Atlanta can make those replacements defend the full width of the running game.
Bring the safeties forward, and Drake London gets his chance deeper. London has topped 95 receiving yards in all three Penix starts; Chicago has conceded a league-worst 68 receiving yards per game on throws traveling at least 20 yards downfield. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen needs his safeties to help with London while still fitting Robinson’s runs. Jordan Love just picked this secondary apart for 367 yards. With Chicago replacing both starting ends, Penix should have time to challenge those competing responsibilities.
Bears vs. Falcons pick, best bet
Williams can certainly make Atlanta’s corners suffer, too. A.J. Terrell remains on injured reserve, C.J. Henderson is out, and Mike Hughes and Avieon Terrell must handle more outside work. Ben Johnson should attack them through Rome Odunze and use Luther Burden against Atlanta’s frequent Cover 3 looks. Odunze drew nine targets in Green Bay and caught only three; better quarterback play would help, but his own hands need to improve. Williams’ hamstring also makes his usual rushing contribution uncertain.
D’Andre Swift faces a defense that surrendered 208 rushing yards to Baltimore after allowing fewer than 70 in each of their first four games. Kyle Monangai remains out, and Johnson still favors a committee. Chicago has already earned 21 red-zone visits, tied for second most; a returning Williams should improve their wretched, last-place 42.9% touchdown rate. I’m allowing for that recovery. Atlanta still has Robinson running behind their intact line, with London threatening the safeties who step forward to tackle him. Penix can finish what those two start.
Best bet: Falcons +1.5 (-120).
Projected score: Falcons 31, Bears 27.
