New England Patriots vs. New York Jets prediction, pick for NFL Week 6 on Sunday 10/18/26

Drake Maye has put some venom back into New England’s passing game. He torched Las Vegas for 374 yards and four touchdown throws, then added a rushing score in a 45-17 win. A.J. Brown’s activation now restores another receiver to an offense that has revived over consecutive victories. The Jets visit Gillette Stadium with their own defensive recovery underway. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Patriots vs. Jets prediction, preview

Aaron Glenn’s defenders sacked Deshaun Watson eight times, with rookie edge rusher David Bailey collecting three. New York has blitzed on 52.4% of opposing dropbacks, second most in the NFL; since the start of 2025, Maye ranks third in EPA/play against man blitzes. He throws into isolated coverage and scrambles through the space those blitzers vacate. Glenn needs a different balance against him, particularly with Brown joining a receiving group whose speed troubled Las Vegas downfield.

Glenn has already expanded his alternatives. The Jets have used Cover 6 on 13.9% of opposing dropbacks, up from 2.3% last season; those split-safety zones should feature in his answer to Maye’s deep throws. Bailey’s speed still threatens Morgan Moses on the right, where Bailey usually rushes. Left tackle Will Campbell remains questionable; rookie Caleb Lomu allowed one pressure on 29 pass-blocking snaps against Las Vegas and would replace him. Joseph Ossai’s absence removes a Jets rusher, but Glenn still has defenders who can win without a blitz.

Rhamondre Stevenson matters against those deeper safeties. He ran for 64 yards on 13 carries last week, and TreVeyon Henderson remains questionable after his ankle injury. Brown’s workload after four missed games also remains unsettled. New York ranks eighth against the run by EPA/play; their front should squeeze some of Stevenson’s early carries and put Maye back into passing downs. There Glenn gets another chance to disguise the coverage rather than conceding an isolated receiver a long way downfield.

Jets vs. Patriots pick, best bet

Jets offensive coordinator Frank Reich should lean on Braelon Allen to spare Geno Smith some difficult downs. With Breece Hall out again, Allen follows a bruising 116-yard game on 24 carries against Cleveland. He forced eight missed tackles in the rain. New England ranks 30th against the run by EPA/play, and Allen can attack inside or bounce toward the perimeter. Guard Dylan Parham’s absence complicates the blocking. Allen will have to run through contact again.

Christian Gonzalez returns to contest Garrett Wilson’s catches. Smith has struggled against Cover 1 and too often turns pressure into sacks. Reich moved Wilson around Cleveland’s best corner last week and should try that again, with Carlton Davis still out. Gonzalez can follow Wilson, so Smith still has to release the ball decisively. I expect Maye to win more of these exchanges. Allen’s power and Wilson’s movement should nevertheless carry enough Jets possessions into scoring range to make a touchdown and the hook appealing.

Best bet: Jets +7.5 (-115).

Projected score: Patriots 27, Jets 20.

Best Bet: Jets +7.5 (-115) at Patriots