We all love the early window when it comes to NFL Sundays. This week, the Pittsburgh Steelers are on the road down in Florida, where they take on a Tampa Bay Buccaneers group that’s coming off a long layoff after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. The visitors are above .500 and looking good despite battling some injuries; the home team has an undrafted rookie under center but just won their first game of the season last time out. Who will come out on top here?
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET in Tampa Bay. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Steelers vs. Buccaneers in NFL Week 6.
Steelers vs. Buccaneers prediction, preview
The AFC North may be a bloodbath this year. All four teams are above .500 at the moment and the Steelers are 3-2 after beating the Falcons, Bengals and Colts. Year one under Mike McCarthy has gotten off to a solid start, and while they’re just 19th in scoring, their offense has looked very solid. Jaylen Warren leads the team in both rushing (410 YDS, 1 TD) and receiving (230 YDS, 1 TD), and while Rico Dowdle is expected to return from injury, the former should remain the clear lead option. Aaron Rodgers also appears resurgent with 1,234 yards and 10 touchdowns to four interceptions, though he’ll have less to work with at receiver this week with Roman Wilson headed to IR. Still, DK Metcalf has 225 yards and a score under his belt and rookie Germie Bernard has shown promise, and that’s not even mentioning the tight ends. The defense also appears strong at ninth in scoring allowed, though it’s worth noting the Steelers fall 20th in EPA/play allowed and 21st in success rate allowed. They’re surprisingly 25th in pressure rate as well, so this isn’t quite the fearsome front seven that we’ve seen in years past.
As for the Buccaneers, it’s been a nightmare season thus far. The NFC South is supposed to be wide open, but Tampa Bay dropped its first four contests in ugly fashion. Quarterback Baker Mayfield – fresh off a contract extension – played poorly when healthy and was injured in Week 3, putting rookie UDFA Jalon Daniels under center starting in Week 4. The results have been mixed, but the team finally got its first win of the year on Thursday of Week 5 against the Cowboys, allowing some extra time to rest and recover heading into this one. Tampa Bay remains 26th in scoring and 25th in EPA/play, but Bucky Irving has been a real bright pot with 406 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns on the ground. The receivers have been less impressive – Emeka Egbuka leads the group with 192 yards and one score, followed by tight end Cade Otton and Chris Godwin – so whether they get the job done against a tougher defense than Dallas’ is a larger question. However, the defense has come around, at least somewhat. The Bucs are now seventh in EPA/play allowed and third in EPA/rush allowed, holding opponents to 17 points or fewer in each of the last two games. If they’ve settled in on that side fo the ball, it’ll be a massive help moving forward.
Steelers vs. Buccaneers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Steelers as a -2.5 favorite on the road with -142 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Buccaneers hold +124 odds on the Moneyline as the home team with the total set at 38.5 combined points.
The Bucs may be able to bottle up Warren more than some of the other teams he’s faced lately, especially with such a strong defensive line. However, he’s on such a heater that it may not matter – since taking over the lead role in Week 3 without Dowdle, he averages 107.0 rushing yards per game with 6.55 YPC and elite underlying metrics in addition to his usage as a receiver. Warren is the engine that makes Pittsburgh’s offense go right now. The passing attack has done enough to succeed recently, too, and the Steelers’ defense has a huge advantage against an inexperienced quarterback. Daniels ranks 32nd among 36 qualified quarterbacks in turnover-worthy throw percentage, also sitting 27th in CPOE and 29th in YPA. He didn’t turn the ball over against Dallas, but this defense could give him fits and make life quite difficult. We’ve seen how poor this Tampa Bay offense can be this year already, and frankly, this just isn’t a matchup that bettors should feel comfortable with from that team’s side. The 2.5-point spread is a smidge too short here.
