Jason Eck trusted his short-yardage quarterback at New Mexico’s own 39. James Laubstein muscled ahead for five yards on fourth-and-one against UTEP, then starter Toa Fa‘avae threw completions of 19 and 25 yards before throwing the touchdown. The Lobos’ coach has settled on Fa‘avae and retained Laubstein for short yardage. Hawaii’s homecoming defense will have to stop both. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and the New Mexico Lobos.
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Hawaii vs. New Mexico prediction, preview
Since Eck gave Fa‘avae the first-team practice work, the redshirt freshman has thrown four touchdowns in two wins. On third-and-one against UTEP, he found freshman receiver Bailen George for a 52-yard score. Hawaii must tackle the receivers after the catch as well as wrestle down running back Scottre Humphrey, who averages 4.7 yards per carry on 70 attempts this season. Four returning starters anchor New Mexico’s line. Hawaii did hold San Jose State to 78 rushing yards, but Arizona State subsequently ripped through the Warriors for 231 on 30 carries. With defensive lineman Luther McCoy out, nose tackle Geoffrey Speight Jr. must stand up to the Lobos’ experienced interior.
Hawaii has found some badly needed receiving help while veteran receiver Pofele Ashlock remains out. At Arizona State, slot receiver Kainoa Carvalho gained 13 and 25 yards on consecutive catches, taking quarterback Micah Alejado to the 12 before three straight incompletions spoiled the touchdown opportunity. Hawaii had covered 80 yards and still settled for a kick. Carvalho later converted third-and-two during a 75-yard touchdown march, which outside receiver Audric Harris finished with a 32-yard reception. With 12:35 left, Hawaii was back within 12 points.
New Mexico must defend those throws without linebacker Jaxton Eck and cornerback Frankie Edwards III. Clay Martineau takes over at linebacker, with Jahmir Torres stepping in at corner. With Carvalho moving the chains and those two starters missing, I expect Hawaii to reach the teens. Hawaii squandered a possession after blocking an Arizona State punt, taking two sacks and committing two penalties. The Warriors have scored touchdowns on only seven of 20 red-zone trips. Alejado’s tackles, veteran Dean Briski and freshman Uluaki Taukiuvea, still face New Mexico’s starting defensive front. Hawaii coach Timmy Chang could give running back DeVon Rice more work after his six carries gained 28 yards last week. That would spare Alejado some dropbacks against a rush with 16 sacks through five games.
New Mexico vs. Hawaii pick, best bet
Today’s 4:30 p.m. homecoming at Ching Complex puts Hawaii back on familiar turf, although New Mexico’s bye and experienced interior line ease the preparation demands on Fa‘avae. Forecast winds of 15–25 mph complicate both quarterbacks’ deeper throws. Near the goal line, Eck can turn to Laubstein, who has scored five times on 19 carries. Two defensive touchdowns and a safety swelled the 61–7 UTEP score, but New Mexico also sustained touchdown drives with this combination of passing and short-yardage muscle. Laubstein’s power should get the Lobos across the goal line often enough to cover 14.5.
Best bet: New Mexico -14.5 (-110).
Projected score: New Mexico 31, Hawaii 13.
Best Bet: New Mexico -14.5 (-110) at Hawaii
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