Javion Kinnard ran for six yards on first down at Oregon State, only for San Diego State quarterback Jayden Denegal to miss his next two throws before the Aztecs punted. They squandered another five-yard opening run the same way. Coach Sean Lewis brings that maddening offense home to Snapdragon Stadium for Saturday’s homecoming and the Old Oil Can rivalry. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the San Diego State Aztecs and the Fresno State Bulldogs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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SDSU vs. Fresno State prediction, preview
Kinnard can move them, provided he’s healthy. After missing the Texas State game, the running back returned with 43 yards on 11 carries against Oregon State. When receiver Jaylon Hawkins finally broke through with a 43-yard catch, Kinnard followed with seven yards, converted third-and-three and helped the Aztecs reach the end zone. Boise gashed Fresno for 274 rushing yards last week, so Lewis should persist with Kinnard if he’s available. Both Kinnard and fellow back Lucky Sutton remain questionable.
Lewis also has a quarterback decision to make. Denegal’s replacement, Draiden Trudeau, managed just 13 yards on eight throws last week. Stone Saunders remains questionable after breaking his collarbone in the opener. Even at home, Saunders would have to sort out protections behind a line that has started four combinations through six games. Fresno sacked Washington State five times two weeks ago. An Aztec offense already wasting short third downs has little room for a sack or a holding penalty.
On third-and-15 against Boise, Fresno quarterback Jayden Mandal threw a touchdown to tight end Gavin Correia. After marching 73 yards, the Bulldogs had pulled back within one score instead of settling for a kick. Receiver Ezekiel Avit struck for touchdowns from ten yards and 59 during his six-catch, 96-yard night. Fresno finished four touchdown drives of at least 59 yards despite losing 38–31; their defense supplied no takeaways.
Fresno State vs. SDSU pick, best bet
Offensive coordinator Josh Davis can make San Diego State defend that passing game across the field. Davis uses shifts to move defenders, with quick throws outside against crowded fronts and checks to runs against lighter boxes. The Aztecs surrendered touchdowns on Oregon State’s first five possessions, well before exhaustion could explain their collapse. They have to tackle Fresno’s receivers on those quick throws or surrender first downs before their pass rush can matter. Explosive back Rayshon Luke remains questionable, however, and Fresno started Ethan Dasmann at right guard for the first time last week with Marquise Thorpe-Taylor unavailable.
Luke also missed the Boise game, so Fresno has already shown they can finish drives without him. Hawkins’ three kickoff-return touchdowns through six games make a larger spread dangerous, particularly if the Bulldogs struggle to run out a lead. At 7.5, though, I’ll back Mandal to build enough separation through the air.
Best bet: Fresno State -7.5 (-105).
Projected score: Fresno State 30, San Diego State 13.
Best Bet: Fresno State -7.5 (-110) at SDSU
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