On Sunday’s NFL slate, there’s a battle between the Big Apple and the Big Easy as the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints clash in the early window. One of these teams is playing with house money, surviving without its starting quarterback for the moment. The other is underperforming with pressure seemingly mounting from the fanbase and ownership alike.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET in New York. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Saints vs. Giants in NFL Week 6.
Saints vs. Giants prediction, preview
The New Orleans faithful had high expectations for their team heading into year two under Kellen Moore. After all, Tyler Shough showed promise down the stretch last season and the front office added Travis Etienne and Jordyn Tyson. However, those two weapons are on IR and the Saints are just 1-4 after five weeks thanks to one of the NFL’s worst defenses. On offense, they’re 15th in scoring and push the tempo plenty with tons of passing volume, but they’re just 22nd in EPA/play and fall 28th in explosive rate. Shough has delivered 1,299 passing yards and nine touchdowns, but he’s also thrown five picks and truly struggles against pressure. Chris Olave remains a stellar top target with 537 receiving yards on 39 grabs while Devaughn Vele and Juwan Johnson play complimentary roles, but Alvin Kamara is clearly washed in the backfield and the run game has truly struggled. Again, the defense is the bigger issue, too. New Orleans sits 31st in points allowed and 22nd in EPA/play allowed. In particular, the run defense is truly soft with the third-most rushing yards allowed to opponents.
The New York Giants had high expectations entering the John Harbaugh era, and while the season-ending injury to Jaxson Dart probably capped the upside on what this team could become in the immediate future, there’s plenty of reason for hope. Somehow, this group is now 3-1-1 and atop the NFC East, even despite the absence of the young quarterback. Jameis Winston has provided erratic play under center with 805 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions, but it’s been enough for this team to get by on offense. The run game hasn’t been stellar, but Cam Skattebo has 373 all-purpose yards and a touchdown in the backfield. The better news is that Malik Nabers is up to 329 receiving yards and two scores, coming off his best two performances of the year with a pair of 100-yard games as he continues to get back to normal following an extensive injury rehab process. There are some quality pieces here, but the Giants’ defense is a bit less impressive in terms of efficiency. The unit is 21st in EPA/play allowed as well as EPA/rush and EPA/dropback allowed, falling to 27th in success rate allowed, too. However, they’re also eighth in scoring allowed to opponents, so perhaps a bend-don’t-break approach is working well enough.
Saints vs. Giants pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Saints as a -1.5 favorite on the road with -110 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Giants are listed at an identical -110 on the Moneyline as the home team, so this is a true coin flip of a matchup. The total is set at 46.5 combined points.
Picking a winner here feels difficult since this game could truly go either way. The Giants have the fifth-highest blitz rate, which could cause some serious problems for Shough since he struggles against an extra rusher more than most quarterbacks. However, New York’s pressure rate falls 28th, so realistically, their pass rush may not actually prove that problematic if Shough can just get the ball out. He should force feed it to Olave and his other weapons with high volume just as he did over the first few weeks, in which case the Giants’ defense may struggle to keep points down. They’ve allowed at least 20 in every game except for the one against the Titans, so it’s not like they’re an impenetrable force. On the opposite end of the matchup, the Saints’ own defense has performed quite poorly and really struggles against the run, which Skattebo should take advantage of. So long as Winston doesn’t make silly mistakes, New York can absolutely approach the 27+ points the offense posted in each of the last two games.
This matchup could become a shootout, particularly since New Orleans is going to be forced to throw. For that reason, I like the over.
