Clemson never tackled Miami backs Mark Fletcher Jr. and Javian Mallory for a loss on their 30 combined carries. Late in the third quarter, Mallory’s consecutive six- and eight-yard runs brought the Hurricanes to the 2, where Fletcher finished an 83-yard touchdown drive. Miami had overcome a sack and converted fourth down along the way. Florida State now has to stop them Saturday night at Hard Rock Stadium. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Miami Hurricanes and the Florida State Seminoles.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Miami vs. FSU prediction, preview
The Seminoles let Louisville rush for 397 yards Friday, repeatedly losing runners behind pulling blockers or overreacting toward one sideline and leaving room to cut back. Defensive coordinator Tony White needs his linebackers and safeties closer to those gaps. Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson should make them tackle receivers outside, too. Although Clemson held Miami receiver Malachi Toney to five catches for 40 yards, fellow receiver Cooper Barkate turned a screen into a 61-yard touchdown. Quarterback Darian Mensah can put that ball in Barkate’s hands quickly, stretching Florida State outside while Fletcher pounds the middle. Possible showers make that approach more appealing than depending on deep throws.
With right guard Max Buchanan out, Miami should pair SJ Alofaituli at right guard with freshman Ben Congdon on the left, as they did after Buchanan’s injury at Clemson. Florida State sacked Virginia ten times two weeks ago; Miami’s young guards could leave Mensah scrambling. On Miami’s 83-yard drive, Mensah’s 17-yard completion to Toney on third-and-eleven rescued the offense after the sack. Miami can recover when blocking breaks down. I expect some stalls, with enough successful possessions to reach the forties.
Florida State quarterback Ashton Daniels can prolong possessions with his legs and throw at Miami’s linebackers, who have struggled in coverage. Coach Mike Norvell should involve running back Ousmane Kromah early: he converted third-and-eight with a 15-yard catch at Louisville, part of a four-catch, 43-yard evening. Daniels also ran for five touchdowns against Virginia, tearing away for 81 yards on one. Miami’s ends must resist diving inside for Kromah and surrendering the sideline to Daniels.
FSU vs. Miami pick, best bet
The Hurricanes get much-needed defensive help after the bye. Cornerback Xavier Lucas returns, freeing Bryce Fitzgerald to resume playing safety and giving defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman the option to replace a linebacker on passing downs. Florida State’s rebuilt line has conceded four sacks in each of the last two games. Miami edge rusher Damon Wilson II had 2.5 at Clemson, and fellow end Marquise Lightfoot returns alongside him. During the Orange Out, Daniels and center Bradyn Welch-Joiner must sort out protection calls through a sellout crowd.
Miami’s penalties could still spoil the margin. An illegal shift erased Toney’s 58-yard touchdown at Clemson, yet the Hurricanes scored 34 offensive points before a late interception return. Daniels’ running and Kromah’s catches should earn Florida State points, but sacks can turn promising possessions into punts or field goals. Miami’s backs should finish enough possessions in the end zone to win by more than three touchdowns.
Best bet: Miami -21 (-105).
Projected score: Miami 42, Florida State 17.
Best Bet: Miami -21 (-105) vs. FSU
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